Week 4 didn’t go well for my props column, as I went 0-3 on game props and 1-2 on player props.
I almost had a couple of winning game props, but the Jaguars struggled to score more than 23.5 points against the Falcons, and the Jets’ offense finally woke up against the Chiefs.
Nevertheless, it’s a new week, and I plan on bouncing back. Let’s dive into my best NFL Week 5 props.
All NFL betting odds used for these Week 5 props are current as of Wednesday, Oct. 4, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Player Props Week 5
Bryce Young: Under 220.5 Pass Yds (-135)
Panthers rookie QB Bryce Young hasn’t had the same success that C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson have found with their respective teams this season.
Through three games, Young has completed 65% of his passes for 503 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.
- Find more on Panthers vs Lions in our NFL Week 5 predictions and betting picks.
Young has gone Under 220.5 passing yards in all three appearances. He will play the Lions on Sunday, who rank 18th in passing yards per game allowed (219.8) and only give up 5.7 yards per pass attempt — good for eighth in the NFL.
The former Alabama star is averaging 4.9 yards per pass attempt, which doesn’t bode well for him heading into this matchup. Furthermore, Detroit’s defense is ranked eighth in Pass Defense DVOA, according to ftnfantasy.com.
De’Von Achane: Over 50.5 Rush Yds (-125)
The Dolphins’ rookie running back has brought excitement to their backfield this season and seems to be moving into the RB1 role.
Achane has produced back-to-back 100-plus rushing yard performances against the Broncos (203 yards and 2 rush TDs on 18 carries) and Bills (101 yards and 2 TDs on eight carries).
Last week, Achane played a career-high 60% of offensive snaps, which bodes well for him to hit the Over on his prop.
The Giants’ defense has struggled this season against the run, allowing 133.8 yards per contest (eighth-most in the NFL). With New York worrying about Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Achane will have his opportunities in the running game.
Brandon Aubrey: Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+120)
The former USFL placekicker has been excellent in his first NFL season with Dallas, going a perfect 13-for-13 on field goals through four weeks.
- Read up on Jovan’s NFL Week 5 parlays.
Aubrey has gone Over 1.5 field goals made in four straight appearances and averaged 3.3 field goal attempts per game. The 28-year-old kicker should get multiple field goal opportunities on Sunday, as it could be a low-scoring matchup between these two stellar defenses.
NFL Prop Bets Week 5
Falcons vs Texans: ATL Under 20.5 Points (-105)
It makes no sense for this Falcons’ team total to be in double digits, let alone at 20.5 points. Atlanta’s offense has scored 13 total points in their last two contests, which isn’t a recipe for success.
The Falcons will now head home to face Houston, where they are undefeated (2-0) and scoring 24.5 points per game. Could Desmond Ridder and Co. surprise us this week and erupt for 20-plus points?
They could, but it’s difficult to trust an offense averaging 4.6 yards per play (26th in the NFL). And not to mention, the Texans’ defense has allowed 11.5 points per game in their last two.
Chiefs vs Vikings: Chiefs 1H -2.5 (-122)
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will wrap up their two-game road trip on Sunday against the Vikings. Kansas City has played well to start the season (3-1) and outscored their opponents by 12.5 points per game in the first half.
The Vikings picked up their first win last week against the Panthers but have had their fair share of struggles, especially in the first half. Minnesota’s defense coincidentally allows 12.5 points per game in the first half, which is not what you want to see if you are a Vikings fan.
- Keep track of the latest movement in our NFL Week 5 odds.
However, this is perfect for our first-half ATS play as the Chiefs are 3-1 against the spread, while the Vikings are 0-4. Both offenses can score points, but I trust Kansas City’s defense to get a few stops within the first two quarters.
Saints vs Patriots: NE Under 20.5 Points (-125)
Along with the Falcons, the Patriots offense is another unit that bettors need to fade until further notice. New England is 1-3 (the lone win coming against the Jets) this season and has an average scoring margin of -10.5.
Mac Jones hasn’t played great under center (63.7% for 898 yards, 5 TDs, and 4 INTs), and the Patriots have struggled to find consistency on the ground (93.5 yards per game). It won’t get easier on Sunday against a veteran Saints’ defense that’s only allowing 19 points per game.
New England is scoring 13.8 points per game and has gone Under 20.5 points in all four contests this season. Until Jones plays better, it’s hard to see this offense scoring 21 or more points.