NFL Week 5 Predictions & Picks

Doug Bonjour
Last Updated: Oct 3, 2023

The New England Patriots are reeling after falling 38-3 to Dallas. The 35-point shellacking was the worst loss by a Bill Belichick-coached team. Now they’re juggling a potential quarterback controversy.

Can they bounce back Sunday against New Orleans?

We answer that and more as we break down our best NFL bets for Week 5.

NFL Week 5 Predictions

All NFL betting odds used for these Week 5 predictions are current as of Monday, Oct. 2, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Saints vs Patriots Prediction

Best Bet: NO +1.5 (-108)

Whether the Patriots roll with Mac Jones again or turn to Bailey Zappe, their quarterback play is bound to be uninspiring. On top of that, they’re now dealing with injuries to their two best defensive players, Matthew Judon (bicep) and Christian Gonzalez (shoulder).

Without them, the Patriots could struggle to keep pace with New Orleans, even against a banged-up Saints offense.

New Orleans (+105 ML) could well win outright, but I’m going to hedge and take the Saints at +1.5.

Jets vs Broncos Prediction

Best Bet: NYJ +2 (-110)

There’s no such thing as moral losses when you’re a preseason Super Bowl contender.

That said, the Jets had to be encouraged by what they saw Sunday night from Zach Wilson. The much-maligned quarterback went toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes, throwing for 245 yards and two touchdowns.

Maybe that will quiet some of the speculation around Wilson’s job for a bit.

Now he gets the Broncos, who have allowed an NFL-worst 37.5 points per game through the season’s first month. Sure, Russell Wilson looks better. But it’s still hard to trust Denver.

Look for the Jets to cover on the road.

Eagles vs Rams Prediction

Best Bet: PHI -4.5 (-110)

The Eagles are 4-0, one of two undefeated teams remaining in the NFL alongside San Francisco. Yet, interestingly, they still haven’t hit their stride. Three of their wins have come by one score.

But is it time to fade them? No, of course not. Philadelphia is still a serious threat to get back to the Super Bowl.

The Rams have struggled to protect Matthew Stafford, who has already been sacked nine times. Now, his availability is in question because of a hip injury.

A hobbled Stafford against the Eagles’ vaunted defense is a scary proposition. Hit this line before it jumps.

Texans vs Falcons Prediction

Best Bet: ATL ML (-115)

Are C.J. Stroud and Houston for real? It sure looks that way. But I’m siding with Atlanta to get back on track at home behind a heavy dose of Bijan Robinson.

The first-rounder out of Texas looks like the complete package, with 318 rushing yards and 134 receiving yards through his first four games.

Titans vs Colts Prediction

Best Bet: Under 42.5 (-110)

Even with a healthy Anthony Richardson, it’s hard to drum up much excitement for this matchup.

Indianapolis and Tennessee feature run-heavy offenses that have yet to display a big-play element.

That’s unlikely to change anytime soon. Look for this AFC South affair to be low-scoring.


Doug Bonjour

Doug covered college and prep sports in Connecticut for more than a decade, including stints as the UConn women’s basketball and UConn football beat reporter for Hearst Connecticut Media. During his time reporting on the 11-time national champion Huskies, he covered three NCAA Final Fours. He also has written for the Associated Press and New York Times.

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