The NFL regular season is nearly 75% complete. Thus, the NFL MVP odds are tightening, and the contenders are becoming clearer.
Still, this is another excellent opportunity to add to your MVP-betting portfolio and scoop up value in anticipation of future odds changes.
Let’s dig into the latest NFL MVP betting odds.
NFL MVP Odds
NFL betting odds used for these MVP winner picks are from Tuesday, Dec. 5, and courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
- Brock Purdy (+300)
- Dak Prescott (+325)
- Jalen Hurts (+400)
- Lamar Jackson (+600)
- Patrick Mahomes (+750)
- Tua Tagovailoa (+1000)
- Tyreek Hill (+1100)
- Christian McCaffrey (+1500)
- J. Stroud (+3000)
- Josh Allen (+5000)
Remarkably, two non-quarterbacks are in the top-10 betting odds for this season’s MVP. Tyreek Hill is on pace to set the NFL’s single-season receiving yardage record, and Christian McCaffrey is the league’s leader in rushing yards and total touchdowns.
Nevertheless, the last non-quarterback to win the award was running back Adrian Peterson in 2012, and a wide receiver has never won the award. Thus, the odds aren’t long enough to make Cheetah or CMC compelling betting options.
The eight quarterbacks inside the top 10 all have reasonable cases to win the award, albeit those cases aren’t equal – hence the disparity in betting odds.
NFL MVP Voting
The NFL MVP is awarded each year by the Associated Press. A panel of 50 nationwide sportswriters that cover the league vote on the award, with each writer casting a ballot with their top-five selections.
Like most other awards, NFL MVP voting is weighted based on the following criteria:
- First-place vote: 10 points
- Second-place vote: 5 points
- First-place vote: 3 points
- First-place vote: 2 points
- First-place vote: 1 point
The player who earns the most points from the vote is the winner.
When is the NFL MVP Announced?
Much like the Heisman Trophy, the NFL MVP award recognizes the most valuable player during the regular season. Votes are cast before the start of the playoffs, with the NFL MVP announcement coming a few weeks later at the annual NFL Honors.
This award ceremony is hosted on the Thursday before the Super Bowl at a location in the big game’s host city.
While the league has not confirmed any details yet, the NFL MVP announcement will likely occur in Las Vegas on Thursday, Feb. 8, 2024.
NFL MVP Best Bet
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (+600)
Winning is paramount for a player to secure the NFL MVP Award, and the 9-3 Baltimore Ravens are in the driver’s seat for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, with a matchup against the 9-3 Miami Dolphins on the docket in Week 17.
Eight of the previous 10 MVPs were quarterbacks who led their club to their conference’s No. 1 seed, including Lamar Jackson in 2019.
Jackson’s passing production is more good than great. Nevertheless, his rushing exploits are unlike most of his peers at the position.
The dual-threat quarterback is nipping at Gus Edwards’ heels for the team’s season lead in rushing average, clocking up 47.8 rushing yards per game versus 49.2.
If the Ravens are to win out, beating the Jacksonville Jaguars and San Francisco 49ers on the road and the Dolphins at home along the way, Jackson must carry the offense, and that would put him in an excellent position to win the MVP.
NFL MVP Favorites
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys (+325)
Prescott is playing at an exceptional level for the Dallas Cowboys this season.
According to RBSDM, Prescott is second in expected points added plus completion percentage over expected (EPA+CPOE) composite, trailing only the betting favorite, Brock Purdy.
Prescott’s also locked in at an ideal time. Among quarterbacks who’ve dropped back at least 60 times since Week 8, Prescott is Pro Football Focus’s (PFF’s) highest-ranked passer, coming first in big-time throw percentage (8.8 BTT%), passing yards (1,901), and touchdown passes.
This week is critical for Prescott’s MVP case, as a win against the Philadelphia Eagles will give him a marquee victory and put them in a tie for the NFC East lead – although Dallas will be in second by virtue of the division-record tiebreaker.
Prescott’s odds will be shorter at this time next week if Dallas wins, but he’ll likely be close to drawing dead if the Cowboys lose.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+750)
The Kansas City Chiefs’ offense hasn’t lit the world on fire this season. Regardless, Mahomes is absurdly talented, and the club’s wideouts are young.
Furthermore, they wisely ramped up rookie Rashee Rice’s usage since their bye in Week 10, which could help the offense find another gear.
Mahomes isn’t sporting his usual otherworldly numbers. Yet he’s still a top-10 passer by most meaningful metrics.
Finally, the Chiefs could still capture the AFC’s top seed, and Mahomes’s betting odds will likely be shorter next week if the Chiefs beat the Buffalo Bills in Kansas City, making now the time to add a Mahomes ticket to your MVP portfolio if you don’t already have shares.
NFL Awards Betting Odds & Picks
- NFL Coach of the Year Odds & Predictions
- NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds & Predictions
- NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds & Predictions
NFL MVP Contenders
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins (+1000)
Tagovailoa might be hurt by sharing votes with Hill or not receiving full credit for his performance since head coach Mike McDaniel is regarded as a play-calling whiz. Still, his statistics and Miami’s record are MVP-worthy.
Tua is third in EPA+CPOE composite. Moreover, per Pro Football Reference, he’s third in passing yards per game (288.1), second in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (8.11 ANY/A), and tied for second in touchdown passes (24).
Tagovailoa and the Dolphins have a shot at the No. 1 seed like Jackson and the Ravens. In fact, Miami is presently the top seed in the conference.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans (+3000)
Stroud is having a historical rookie campaign that will almost assuredly net him the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. However, it could also put him in the MVP discussion.
First, Stroud’s 470 passing yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the most by a rookie in a single contest. Second, Stroud is on pace for 5,015 passing yards and 28.3 passing touchdowns.
According to Stat Muse, Andrew Luck had the most passing yards (4,374) for a rookie in 2012, and Justin Herbert had the most passing touchdowns (31) in a rookie campaign in 2020.
Stroud can set new highs for both marks if he can maintain his yardage pace and slightly increase his touchdown rate.
Furthermore, Stroud leads the NFL in passing yards per game (295.0). Perhaps most impressive, the rookie signal-caller has the Houston Texans in a position to reach the postseason after Houston won just three games in 2022.
NFL MVP Sleepers
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (+5000)
The Bills might have dug too big of a hole to climb out of to reach the postseason. They’ll need Allen to put on his cape and play like a superhero if they want to win out and make the dance.
Fortunately, he can shoulder the load. Allen ranks fourth in EPA+CPOE composite, sixth in passing yards per game (267.8), is tied for second in passing touchdowns (24), and adds value with his legs, averaging 28.5 rushing yards per game with nine rushing touchdowns.
For the Bills to run the table, they must beat the Chiefs in Kansas City, the Cowboys, the Chargers in Los Angeles, the New England Patriots, and the Dolphins in Miami.
Thus, Allen would have to beat Mahomes, Prescott, Herbert, and Tagovailoa, giving him elite head-to-head victories to close out the regular season, enhancing the odds of recency bias creeping into voters’ decision-making.
Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers (+25000)
It wasn’t smooth sailing for Jordan Love earlier this year. Thankfully, he’s smoothing out the variance and ascending at the right time.
Love is PFF’s third-ranked passer among quarterbacks who’ve dropped back at least 60 times since Week 8. The inexperienced quarterback is also fifth in EPA+CPOE composite during that stretch.
The Green Bay Packers have won three straight games, including beating the defending Super Bowl champs. They should be betting favorites in their final five games.
If the Packers win at least four of their final five games, they should make the postseason one year after Aaron Rodgers fell short of the playoffs in his final campaign in Green Bay.
Previous NFL MVP Winners
2022: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
2021: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
2020: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
2019: Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
2018: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
2017: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
2016: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
2015: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
2014: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
2013: Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos