AFC Championship Odds

John Arlia
Last Updated: Feb 27, 2024

The 2023-24 NFL season has concluded with the AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs winning their second straight Super Bowl title with a 25-22 overtime victory over the San Francisco 49ers.

Unsurprisingly, Patrick Mahomes and Co. are the way-too-early favorites to emerge out of the AFC again next season. But which teams could stand in Kansas City’s way?

Let’s look at the latest 2025 AFC Championship odds and highlight some potential conference contenders.

AFC Championship Odds

NFL odds used for these best bets are current as of Tuesday, Feb. 13, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Kansas City Chiefs (+330)
  • Buffalo Bills (+500)
  • Baltimore Ravens (+500)
  • Cincinnati Bengals (+700)
  • Miami Dolphins (+1000)
  • Houston Texans (+1200)
  • Los Angeles Chargers (+1300)
  • New York Jets (+1400)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+1700)
  • Cleveland Browns (+2000)
  • Indianapolis Colts (+2500)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (+4500)
  • Denver Broncos (+6000)
  • Las Vegas Raiders (+6000)
  • New England Patriots (+7500)
  • Tennessee Titans (+8000)

AFC Championship Best Bet

Kansas City Chiefs (+330)

Instead of going out on a limb at this point of the offseason, I’m comfortable taking the Chiefs at a price that seems steep but actually represents value in the Mahomes era.

Since taking over as the starter in 2018, Mahomes has led the Chiefs to the AFC Championship Game in six straight seasons. He has won the conference title four times, meaning this NFL futures bet has hit at a 66.6% clip over that span.

These odds are implying that Kansas City has a 23.26% chance of winning the AFC for a third straight season, which falls well below that mark.

While another Super Bowl appearance would be unprecedented in the modern era, doubting Andy Reid’s squad seems like a bad idea.

[pick id="171219"]

AFC Championship Favorites

Buffalo Bills (+500)

Josh Allen is going to get over the hump at some point, right?

While I believe Buffalo’s elite quarterback has all the tools to lead his team to a conference title, the Bills have been on the wrong side of Kansas City’s recent dominance, falling to the Chiefs in the postseason three of the past four years.

After running it back and coming up short once again, it’s almost a positive that Buffalo is going to have to shake things up this offseason because of its cap situation. But until we see what changes come about, I’m staying away.

Baltimore Ravens (+500)

It’s hard not to think that Baltimore blew its best chance of reaching the Super Bowl this season.

The Ravens had home-field advantage, one of the league’s best defenses, and the league MVP, Lamar Jackson, playing at a high level.

That probably won’t be the case next season. The departure of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald (now Seattle’s head coach) looms large, as do a number of free-agent decisions on both sides of the ball.

AFC Championship Contenders

Cincinnati Bengals (+700)

If you’re looking for a value pick further down the board, I’d target the Bengals.

Don’t get me wrong, Cincinnati has a massive offseason in front of it. Wide receivers Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, offensive lineman Jonah Williams, and DT DJ Reader are among several key contributors set to hit free agency.

Still, the Bengals will get a healthy Joe Burrow back under center and Ja’Marr Chase remains one of the game’s best weapons out wide.

This group reached the Super Bowl in 2021 and its core has enough talent to carry it past KC and others.

[pick id="171220"]

Houston Texans (+1200)

The Texans were one of the best stories of the past season, going from worst to first in the AFC South and winning a home playoff game.

Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud was instrumental in that success, stepping in at quarterback and playing at a high level from the jump.

Given the lack of reputed talent around him, Stroud’s ceiling seems exceptionally high. Now, it’s on Houston to maximize the roster around him while he remains on a rookie deal.

The Texans enter the offseason with the third-most cap space in the NFL, giving DeMeco Ryans’ squad a chance to transform into a legitimate contender come next September.

AFC Championship Sleepers

New York Jets (+1400)

Aaron Rodgers’ first season in New York lasted all of four plays, dooming the Jets before their campaign truly took off.

However, Robert Saleh’s squad has some of the building blocks of a successful team. It has a dominant defense, a star running back in Breece Hall, and a talented wideout in Garrett Wilson.

If GM Joe Douglas can successfully retool what was a dreadful offensive line to help keep Rodgers upright, the Jets could make some noise in the AFC.

Still, it’s hard to buy into this price with a 40-year-old Rodgers coming off an Achilles tear. If you’re interested in backing the Jets, I’d wait until the summer and see if this number drops.

Cleveland Browns (+2000)

The Browns were another feel-good story of the past season as Joe Flacco came off the street to lead Cleveland to a playoff appearance, winning NFL Comeback Player of the Year honors in the process.

Head coach Kevin Stefanski was also honored with the AP Coach of the Year award after helping his team to a four-win improvement despite a litany of injuries.

Cleveland’s defense, led by Myles Garrett, was the driving force for its success, but the unit struggled significantly away from home.

If the Browns can sort that issue out and get Deshaun Watson back to the level he played at in Houston, they could be a viable sleeper.

[pick id="171221"]

Previous AFC Championship Winners

2023: Kansas City Chiefs

2022: Kansas City Chiefs

2021: Cincinnati Bengals

2020: Kansas City Chiefs

2019: Kansas City Chiefs

2018: New England Patriots

2017: New England Patriots

2016: New England Patriots

2015: Denver Broncos

2014: New England Patriots


John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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