NFL Prop Bets Week 4

Jovan Alford
Last Updated: Sep 28, 2023

Week 3 was one to remember as the Dolphins dropped 70 points on the Broncos, the Texans and Colts picked up upset road wins, and the Vikings dropped to 0-3 after losing to the Chargers in dramatic fashion.

As for my Week 3 props column, I went an impressive 0-3 on player props and 1-2 on game props. I’ll try to bounce back this week as we have a ton of tremendous matchups, including a Sunday morning game between the Falcons and Jaguars at Wembley Stadium in London.

Let’s dive into my best Week 4 props.

All NFL betting odds used for these Week 4 props are current as of Tuesday, Sept. 26, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Player Props Week 4

Russell Wilson: Over 232.5 Pass Yds (-105)

The Sean Payton era hasn’t started off great, as the Broncos are 0-3 after getting demolished 70-20 by the Dolphins last week. However, Denver could be due for a bounce-back performance against the winless Chicago Bears.

Wilson hasn’t been the problem through three weeks, completing 65.3% of his passes for 791 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions. The veteran quarterback has gone well Over 232.5 passing yards in Denver’s last two outings against the Dolphins (308) and Commanders (306).

Wilson should be able to continue that trend against a Chicago defense allowing 285.7 passing yards per game (third-worst) and a 68.7% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks.

Chicago ranks last in Defense DVOA and 31st in Pass Defense DVOA, making this a great matchup for Wilson and the Broncos’ skill position players to go off.

Travis Etienne Jr.: Over 68.5 Rush Yds (-110)

The Jaguars haven’t had much success running the football this season (98.3 yards per game), but they could get back on track against the Falcons.

Atlanta’s defense has allowed 117.7 rushing yards per game this season, and opposing lead backs have eclipsed this number in two of three games (Carolina’s Miles Sanders in Week 1 and Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs last week).

Additionally, Travis Etienne Jr. has gone Over 68.5 rushing yards in two of three games this season, including last week’s 88-yard effort against the Texans on 19 carries.

In the two games Etienne went Over this mark, he averaged 18.5 carries. He should get to that number on Sunday morning in a favorable game script, leading this prop to cash.

Tutu Atwell: Over 4.5 Receptions (+110)

In the absence of Cooper Kupp, Atwell has become a significant playmaker in the Rams’ offense and thrived as their second-best receiver behind rookie Puka Nacua.

The 23-year-old has 17 receptions on 26 targets for 246 yards and a touchdown this season. He averages 8.5 targets per game and has recorded Over 4.5 receptions in two of three contests.

The Colts have allowed the eighth-most receptions to WRs this season and rank 28th in DVOA against WR2s.

Atwell’s receiving yardage prop — Over 51.5 yards (-115) — is also worth a half-unit sprinkle.

NFL Prop Bets Week 4

Falcons vs Jaguars: JAX Over 23.5 Points (+100)

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars’ offense have gone through a power outage, scoring 26 points over the last two weeks after putting up 31 in Week 1.

In Week 3 against the Texans, Jacksonville was held scoreless in the first half before racking up 17 points in the second half. The Jaguars averaged 5.9 yards per play (highest mark this season) but were 5-of-13 on third downs.

However, Jacksonville should find its footing against the Falcons’ defense, which has allowed just over 22 points per game this season.

The Jags have too many playmakers on offense to be held under 20 points for the third straight week.

Chiefs vs Jets: NYJ Under 15.5 Points (-105)

The Jets’ offense struggled for the second straight week, scoring 10 points in Sunday’s home loss against the Patriots.

New York QB Zach Wilson completed 18-of-36 passes for 157 yards and was sacked three times. As a team, the Jets only amassed 171 total yards and averaged 2.8 yards per play.

  • Stay up to date on the latest trends & line moves with our NFL Week 4 odds.

On Sunday night, Robert Saleh’s squad will host the Chiefs, who have allowed 19 points in their last two games.

It’s hard to see the Jets moving the ball successfully against a Chiefs defense that is allowing 4.6 yards per offensive play (sixth-best in the NFL) and has surrendered just three touchdowns this season.

Broncos vs Bears: Both Teams Score in 1Q (+140)

The NFL viewing public will likely steer clear of this game, as both teams are 0-3 and appear to be competing for USC star QB Caleb Williams.

However, there’s value to be had here. Denver’s defense has allowed 105 points over its last two games, and Chicago’s has given up 61.

Additionally, the Broncos have conceded the third-most first-quarter points (8.0), and Chicago is not far behind at 5.7 first-quarter points per game.

Russell Wilson hasn’t been bad this season (65.4% completions, 791 passing yards, six touchdown passes, and two interceptions), and I trust him to move the ball against this Chicago defense.

The Bears are still searching for their offensive identity. But given Denver’s inability to make tackles, Justin Fields should be able to get Chicago at least into field-goal range early on Sunday.


Jovan Alford

Jovan Alford is currently a freelance writer at The Game Day. Before TGD, Jovan was a content producer at The Sporting News, focusing on betting and fantasy sports. He also worked at DraftKings Nation and was previously a sports editor at the Philadelphia Metro. Jovan loves betting on player props and playing daily fantasy sports.

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