NFL Prop Bets Week 16

Jovan Alford
Last Updated: Dec 21, 2023

My NFL props column went 3-3 for the second consecutive week. Week 15 was tough to handicap as we had one game on Thursday, three on Saturday, and the rest on Sunday and Monday.

My three winning bets in Week 15 were Courtland Sutton Over 53.5 receiving yards (71), Isaiah Likely Over 34.5 receiving yards (70), and the Los Angeles Rams scoring Over 27.5 points (28).

I’ll try to go over .500 in Week 16, which begins with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams.

Let’s jump into my favorite NFL Week 16 prop bets.

All NFL betting odds used for these Week 16 props are current as of Thursday, Dec. 21, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Player Props Week 16

Baker Mayfield: Over 1.5 TD Passes (+100)

Mayfield has exceeded all expectations in his first season with the Buccaneers. The veteran quarterback is completing 63.5% of his passes and has racked up 3,315 passing yards, 24 touchdown passes, and just eight interceptions.

Mayfield is coming off a historic performance against the Packers, posting a perfect QB rating (158.3) while throwing for 381 yards and four touchdowns. Now, he gets to face a Jaguars defense that has allowed 23 passing touchdowns (seventh-most in the NFL) this season.

The 28-year-old has gone Over 1.5 touchdown passes in eight of 14 games this season. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw at least two touchdowns in three of its last five games.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Over 42.5 Rec Yds (-115)

The rookie wide receiver is becoming an integral part of the Seahawks passing game, which is a great sign with three games remaining in the regular season.

Smith-Njigba had four receptions (on four targets) for 48 yards and a touchdown in Seattle’s Week 15 win over the Eagles. He has also seen 22 targets over his last three games, which is shockingly higher than No. 1 WR DK Metcalf (19).

The Ohio State product will try to have another good outing on Sunday against a Titans defense that ranks 21st in DVOA-WR3 and allows 51.4 receiving yards per game to the position, per FTNFantasy.

Smith-Njigba has gone Over 42.5 receiving yards in six of 14 games this season. However, if the Titans are determined to take away Metcalf, it should open up opportunities for Smith-Njigba and No. 2 wideout Tyler Lockett.

James Cook: Over 14.5 Carries (-125)

The second-year running back has seen an uptick in production and workload since Joe Brady was named Buffalo’s offensive coordinator after the Bills’ Week 10 loss to the Broncos.

Cook has averaged 17 carries and 88.3 rushing yards per game over his last four contests, an improvement from the first 10 games (12 carries per game) of the season. Last week against the Cowboys, the 24-year-old went off for 179 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries and also had a receiving touchdown.

The University of Georgia product will now face a Chargers defense that allows 26.9 rushing attempts per game. In a game where the Bills are heavy favorites, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Buffalo lean on Cook and the rushing attack again as Los Angeles has allowed 126 rushing yards per game over its last three contests.

NFL Prop Bets Week 16

Bengals vs Steelers: CIN Over 19.5 Points (-105)

The Bengals’ offense has not skipped a beat since Jake Browning took over Joe Burrow in Week 11 against the Ravens.

Cincinnati’s offense has averaged 369 total yards and 26.3 points per game in Browning’s last four starts. The Bengals will try to keep the good times rolling against the Steelers, who have dropped four of their past five games.

These two AFC North rivals played each other in Week 12, with Pittsburgh winning 16-10. Since that victory, the Steelers have trended in the wrong direction, allowing their opponents to score more than 19.5 points in three straight games.

They are also giving up 20.3 points per game at home this season. If Joe Mixon can get going on the ground, which should open up the passing game, the Bengals should go Over their team total.

Cardinals vs Bears: CHI 1H Over 12.5 Points (-118)

Since Justin Fields returned from a dislocated thumb in Week 11, the Bears have averaged 7.5 first-half points per game over their last four contests.

However, Chicago has scored 10.3 first-half points per game (18th in the NFL) this season, giving us some hope heading into this week’s matchup against the Cardinals.

Arizona has allowed 13.2 first-half points per game this season (28th in the NFL) and 15 first-half points per game over their last three outings (sixth-most in the league).

The key for Chicago to hit this number is red-zone success, which has been an issue in its last three games (37.5% red-zone TD percentage).

However, the Cards’ red-zone defense has been horrible in their last three games (75% red-zone TD percentage). We can hit the OVER on Sunday with a Fields rushing and passing TD.

Packers vs Panthers: GB 1H -2.5 (-122)

After getting crushed at Lambeau Field last week by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Green Bay Packers will try to bounce back on the road against the two-win Carolina Panthers.

The Packers trailed by three points at the half against the Bucs, but they were outscored by 11 in the second half.

These two offenses are ranked in the bottom third of first-half points per game. However, the Packers have a better first-half defense (10.7 1H ppg allowed – 15th in the NFL) than the Panthers (12.8 1H ppg allowed – 25th in the NFL).

Green Bay is 3-3-1 against the spread on the road in the first half this season, while Carolina has a 2-4 ATS mark at home in the first half.

The Packers are still in the hunt for a playoff spot in the NFC but need to get off to a fast start on Sunday against the Panthers.


Jovan Alford

Jovan Alford is currently a freelance writer at The Game Day. Before TGD, Jovan was a content producer at The Sporting News, focusing on betting and fantasy sports. He also worked at DraftKings Nation and was previously a sports editor at the Philadelphia Metro. Jovan loves betting on player props and playing daily fantasy sports.

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