NFL Week 16 Predictions & Picks

Doug Bonjour
Last Updated: Dec 20, 2023

It’s nearly Christmas, and to mark the occasion, the NFL’s Week 16 slate is loaded with spotlight games.

Sandwiched around the traditional Sunday schedule are a doubleheader on Saturday and a tripleheader on Christmas Day.

With that in mind, let’s tackle some of our best bets for NFL Week 16.

NFL Week 16 Predictions

All NFL betting odds used for these Week 16 predictions are current as of Tuesday, Dec. 19, and are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Cowboys vs Dolphins Prediction

Best Bet: MIA -1.5 (-110)

Miami has been a bit suspect against better competition, with an 0-3 record versus teams above .500 (Bills, Eagles, Chiefs). But Dallas clearly is a different team away from home.

Whereas the Cowboys are 7-0 with a plus-171 point differential at AT&T Stadium, they’re just 3-4 on the road with a minus-4 following their 31-10 stinker against Buffalo.

Assuming Tyreek Hill is healthy, I like Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins to cover this small spread.

Jaguars vs Buccaneers Prediction

Best Bet: TB +1 (-115)

The Jaguars have dropped three straight and face the prospect of being without Trevor Lawrence, who wound up in concussion protocol following a 23-7 loss to Baltimore.

Tampa Bay is among the tougher teams to peg, with a perfectly average 7-7 record. But it has played better of late and gets to face the NFL’s fourth-worst passing defense. Look for Baker Mayfield – on the heels of his 381-yard, four-touchdown performance against Green Bay – to have another big week and lead the Buccaneers to their fourth win in a row.

Commanders vs Jets Prediction

Best Bet: Under 38 (-110)

Nobody has been worse defensively than the Commanders, who rank 32nd in both yards (384.5) and points (30.2) allowed per game. Two of their last three opponents have scored 45 points.

The Jets, however, have been abysmal offensively, and Aaron Rodgers isn’t returning in time to save them. With Zach Wilson in concussion protocol, New York may be forced to start journeyman backup Trevor Sieman at quarterback.

I’m leaning toward the Under, especially if Wilson can’t go.

Browns vs Texans Prediction

Best Bet: HOU -2.5 (-112)

Houston rallied from a 13-0 deficit to squeak out a 19-16 overtime win over Tennessee in Week 15. By virtue of Jacksonville’s loss, the Texans moved into a three-way tie atop the AFC South at 8-6.

The Texans could certainly use C.J. Stroud, but Case Keenum has proven time and again to be a capable spot starter.

While Joe Flacco has played well for Cleveland, I’m leaning toward the Texans in the battle of backup quarterbacks.

Raiders vs Chiefs Prediction

Best Bet: KC -10 (-105)

The Chiefs still haven’t hit their stride, especially on offense. Yet they can clinch another AFC West title with a victory in either of their final two divisional games.

Kansas City has already beaten the Raiders once this season, 31-17 in Week 12, and seems primed to do so again. Coming off its 63-21 blowout of the Chargers, Las Vegas is in for a reality check.

Be sure to jump on this spread before it climbs any higher.


Doug Bonjour

Doug covered college and prep sports in Connecticut for more than a decade, including stints as the UConn women’s basketball and UConn football beat reporter for Hearst Connecticut Media. During his time reporting on the 11-time national champion Huskies, he covered three NCAA Final Fours. He also has written for the Associated Press and New York Times.

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