My NFL Week 15 parlays went 2-1 as I hit a three-leg moneyline parlay (DET, KC, & NO) and my same-game parlay (TB +3.5 + Over 42).
I’ll try to make it a perfect three-for-three this week, which would make this Christmas a truly merry one indeed.
Let’s dig into my NFL Week 16 parlay picks.
NFL Week 16 Parlay Picks
All NFL betting odds used for these Week 16 parlays are current as of Wednesday, Dec. 20, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Parlay: GB ML + CLE ML + SEA ML (+319)
Longshot Parlay: DAL ML + PIT ML + ATL ML + JAX-TB Over 42 (+1414)
Same Game Parlay: LAC +11.5 + BUF-LAC Under 44 (+272)
NFL Week 16 Best Parlay Bet
Week 16 Best Parlay (+319)
- Packers ML (-225) @ Panthers
- Browns ML (-142) @ Texans
- Seahawks ML (-142) @ Titans
Backing three road teams isn’t typically the safest play, but our best Week 16 parlay is doing just that.
The Green Bay Packers are coming off back-to-back losses to the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which put a significant dent in the team’s wild-card hopes. Losing to the two-win Carolina Panthers would essentially put the final nail in Green Bay’s coffin.
Although the Panthers have no first-round pick to tank for, the Packers should take care of business on the road.
- Check out our favorite NFL Week 16 prop bets.
I’m pairing Green Bay with a Cleveland team that currently occupies the fifth seed in the AFC. However, with plenty of 8-6 teams just a game behind the Browns, they still need to win to secure a playoff spot.
A trip to Houston won’t be easy, but the continued absence of Texans QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) is enough for me to think Kevin Stefanski‘s squad keeps its winning run going.
To wrap things up, we’ll take the Seattle Seahawks to continue the good vibes from their Monday night win against the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee has been a tough out in recent weeks, but it also may be without starting QB Will Levis (ankle).
Ryan Tannehill is a capable backup option, but the Titans may choose to further evaluate 2022 third-round pick Malik Willis instead of giving Tannehill, who is sure to depart this offseason, another shot. Either way, Seattle is the team to back here, especially since it might get Geno Smith (groin) back.
NFL Week 16 Longshot Parlay Bet
Week 16 Longshot Parlay (+1414)
- Cowboys ML (+100) @ Dolphins
- Steelers ML (+114) vs Bengals
- Falcons ML (-115) vs Colts
- Jaguars @ Buccaneers Over 42 (-112)
I’m starting off this week’s longshot parlay with the Dallas Cowboys to bounce back against the Miami Dolphins.
Dallas had its five-game winning streak snapped Sunday in Buffalo, falling to the Bills 31-10. After not putting up a fight, I’m expecting a much better effort from Dak Prescott and Co. against a Dolphins team that has struggled mightily against elite competition. I have the Cowboys in that category, so Dallas should get back on track here.
I’ll pair the Cowboys with the Steelers, who have turned to QB Mason Rudolph to save their season. That seems like a fitting move for Christmas week, but in all seriousness, Mitchell Trubisky clearly wasn’t the answer.
While we know Rudolph isn’t an above-average quarterback either, he should at least give this offense a spark. Most importantly, this just feels like the perfect spot to buy low on a Pittsburgh team that has lost three straight and sell high on a Bengals team that will be without Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder) and has won three in a row with Jake Browning.
- Get our top moneyline, ATS, and Over/Under plays in our NFL Week 16 picks.
Another team on a losing run that is making a quarterback change this week is the Atlanta Falcons, who have lost back-to-back games and are turning back to Taylor Heinicke in favor of Desmond Ridder.
Arthur Smith‘s side is losing ground in the NFC South race and needs a win over the Indianapolis Colts on Christmas Eve to keep pace. This is a good matchup for Atlanta as the Colts allow 127.4 rushing yards per game (seventh-most in the NFL), and Heinicke should give this struggling passing attack a much-needed jolt.
The Colts deserve a lot of credit for remaining in the playoff hunt, but there should be some regression coming their way.
Lastly, I’ll finish this longshot parlay off with the Over in the Buccaneers-Jaguars contest. This is a relatively modest total for two defenses that have allowed 20-plus points in four of their last five contests.
Part of that is likely because Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence remains in concussion protocol. I’d clearly like this more if Lawrence plays, but C.J. Beathard is a capable backup and both passing attacks should have success in this one.
NFL Week 16 Same Game Parlay Bet
Bills vs Chargers Same Game Parlay (+272)
- Chargers +11.5 (-105)
- Under 44 (-110)
Hold your nose, this same-game parlay is one of the more disgusting bets one could place this week. However, this is the type of play that usually hits when betting on the NFL.
The Los Angeles Chargers cleaned house this week after losing 63-21 to the Raiders in Las Vegas last Thursday night. The team had clearly quit on Brandon Staley, and it showed in a big way in that contest.
- Stay up to date on the latest line moves with our NFL Week 16 odds.
While backing Easton Stick in his second NFL start isn’t exactly an entertaining thought, we should get a much better effort from LA here. The Chargers have extra rest, while the Bills are on a short week coming off an emotional 21-point home victory over the Cowboys.
Buffalo ran the ball 49 times in that contest, and it wouldn’t be surprising James Cook and the other Bills running backs get plenty more chances in a game that they should win without too much trouble.
That moving clock should help us hit the Under, and Buffalo has nothing to gain by running up the score here. Plus, Stick has shown enough to get us in the back door late if needed.