My NFL props column went 2-4 for the second consecutive week, which wasn’t part of the plan.
The only two prop bets I hit were the Dallas Cowboys team total Over 26.5 (they scored 33 points) and the Jacksonville Jaguars Over 2.5 total touchdowns (they found the end zone four times).
Heading into Week 12, which features four games between Thanksgiving and Black Friday, I hope to claw back above .500 with my wagers.
Let’s jump into my best NFL Week 12 prop bets.
All NFL betting odds used for these Week 12 props are current as of Tuesday, Nov. 21, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Player Props Week 12
David Njoku: Over 39.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Browns tight end David Njoku has quietly become one of Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s favorite targets in his first two career starts.
Njoku led all Browns pass-catchers with a season-high 15 targets in last week’s game against the Steelers. The 27-year-old finished with seven receptions for 56 yards. In Thompson-Robinson’s first start against the Ravens in Week 4, Njoku posted six receptions (on seven targets) for 46 yards.
The veteran tight end should be in store for another strong outing against the Broncos’ defense, which allows 70.6 receiving yards per game to tight ends. They also rank 31st in DVOA-TE, according to FTN Fantasy.
Njoku has gone Over 39.5 receiving yards in six out of 10 games this season and averages 59.3 yards per game on the road. I would play his receiving yards prop up to 45.5 yards.
Jaylen Warren: Over 47.5 Rush Yds (-115)
The 25-year-old running back is coming off an outstanding performance against Cleveland last week, gashing the Browns for 129 yards and a touchdown on only nine carries.
Warren has turned in back-to-back 100-plus rushing yard games and will now face a struggling Bengals defense that has allowed 138.3 rushing yards per game (31st in the NFL).
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Bettors might hesitate to take the Over on Warren’s rushing yards prop because he’s sharing the backfield with Najee Harris. However, Warren has been the more explosive RB over the last three contests, producing 9.7 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Harris has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over the same span.
Matt Prater: Over 1.5 FGs Made (+105)
The veteran kicker has been a valuable weapon for the Cardinals over the last few weeks. Prater made one field goal in last week’s five-point loss to Houston but converted four attempts in Week 10 against the Falcons.
In the Cardinals’ first game against the Rams earlier this season, the 39-year-old kicker went 3-for-3 on field goals.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see Prater have a similar output on Sunday, as Los Angeles ranks 31st in field-goal attempts allowed (2.8) and 30th in field goals made (2.3) per game.
The 39-year-old has made 19-of-21 field-goal attempts this season and has gone Over 1.5 in five of 11 games.
NFL Prop Bets Week 12
Steelers vs Bengals: Under 17.5 1H Points (-115)
With Bengals QB Joe Burrow (wrist) out for the season, and the Steelers’ offense on a downward spiral, the first-half Under for this matchup between AFC North rivals seems like a good play.
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Pittsburgh’s offense has been horrific to watch this season. The Steelers rank 28th in yards per play (4.7) and only score 7.2 first-half points per game (28th in the NFL). Even worse, they average four first-half points per game on the road.
Meanwhile, the Bengals’ first-half offense has been slightly better (10.2 points per game), but that was with Burrow in the lineup. It’s hard to expect Jake Browning to have the same success this week, even with Pittsburgh’s defense allowing 12.1 first-half points per game.
Rams vs Cardinals: LAR Over 2.5 TDs (-115)
The last time these two teams played each other, the Rams won 26-9 in Week 6 at SoFi Stadium. Los Angeles only scored two touchdowns, as the rest of its points came from the kicking game.
The Rams will try to have better luck this week against Arizona’s defense, which allows 2.5 red-zone touchdowns per game (32nd in the NFL).
There might be some trepidation to take the Over with star WR Cooper Kupp (ankle) banged up. However, I believe the Rams can score a few touchdowns on the ground.
Kyren Willams and Royce Freeman should have success against this Cardinals’ defense (15 total TDs allowed to RBs), while Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell pick up the slack in the receiving game.
Plus, this is a better play than taking the Rams to go Over 20.5 points at -148 odds.
Saints vs Falcons: Over 3.5 FGs Made (-105)
When you have two offenses ranked 18th (Saints – 21.7 PPG) and 24th (Falcons – 18.9 PPG) in scoring this season, there’s a high chance they’ll depend on their kickers to make a few field goals.
New Orleans has allowed 1.9 made field goals per game to opponents this season (19th in the NFL), while Atlanta has yielded 2.1 made field goals per game.
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Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo is one of the best in the league, converting 21-of-22 attempts this season. Koo is also averaging 2.2 attempts and 2.1 field goals made per game.
Meanwhile, Saints rookie Blake Grupe is 19-for-24 on field goals this season. He’s also averaging 2.4 field-goal attempts per game.
In a game where the Over/Under is set at 42 points, it’s possible we see four made field goals between these two kickers.