Thanksgiving NFL Prop Bets 2023

John Arlia
Last Updated: Nov 22, 2023

The NFL is serving up three divisional matchups on Thanksgiving 2023, giving bettors plenty of places to find value in the prop market.

So while you’re loading another piece of pie onto your plate, check out our favorite Thanksgiving prop bets.

Thanksgiving NFL Prop Bets

All NFL betting odds used for these Thanksgiving props are current as of Tuesday, Nov. 21, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise specified).

Packers vs Lions: DET: Over 29.5 Points (+110)

Let’s start with a plus-money play that has hit in three of Detroit’s five home games this season.

The Lions went to Lambeau Field and dropped 34 points on the Packers in Week 4, and Jared Goff put up below-average numbers (210 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT).

Goff always seems to play his best football at Ford Field, and his talented backfield mates Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery should run all over a Green Bay defense that allows 134.7 rushing yards per game (28th in the NFL).

Detroit will move the ball at will in this one, leading to another 30-plus point home outing.

Commanders vs Cowboys: 1st Scoring Play: DAL TD (+105) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Cowboys’ first points have come from a touchdown in each of their last six games.

Although a Dallas touchdown has only opened the overall scoring in three of those contests, that’s a pretty good indication of Dallas’ early-game script and ability to get the ball in the end zone.

Dak Prescott and Co. are 11-point home favorites against a Washington team that turned the ball over six times last week against the Giants.

Expect the Cowboys to get off to a quick start and get seven on the board early.

49ers vs Seahawks: SEA: Under 17.5 Points

The Seahawks enter Thursday night’s showdown against the 49ers with some injury concerns on offense.

Quarterback Geno Smith (tricep) missed part of Sunday’s loss to the Rams, and running back Ken Walker III (oblique) also exited early.

That’s concerning for a Seattle offense that hasn’t been as explosive as it was last season, especially heading into a matchup with the defensive-minded Niners.

San Francisco’s defensive line should dominate up front, which will make getting over this point total an uphill climb.

The Seahawks mustered just seven and 13 points in two regular-season games against the 49ers last season, and they’ll struggle to keep pace again here.

Thanksgiving NFL Player Props

David Montgomery: Over 66.5 Rush Yards (-120)

To the disappointment of Jahmyr Gibbs’ fantasy managers, Montgomery still has a sizable role in this Detroit backfield.

In two games since returning from a rib injury, the 26-year-old has rushed 12 times for 116 yards against the Chargers and 12 times for 76 yards against his former team, the Chicago Bears.

Montgomery racked up 121 yards on 32 carries against the Packers in Week 4, scoring three touchdowns in a 34-20 rout.

He’ll again split the work with Gibbs but should have enough of a role to surpass this projection.

Brandin Cooks: Long Rec Over 18.5 Yards (-115)

Dallas’ offseason acquisition is finally starting to find his role in the offense.

Cooks has 12 catches and over 200 receiving yards over the last two weeks. And although the Giants game (9-173-1) was an outlier, the 30-year-old veteran is starting to make big plays down the field.

Cooks has catches of 22-plus yards in three of the last four games and has seen four-plus targets in nine of 10 outings this season.

He’ll have a few opportunities to make a big play against a Washington defense that allows 258.5 pass yards per game (30th in the NFL) and gave up 20-plus yard catches to four Giants pass-catchers last week.

Christian McCaffrey: 1st TD Scorer (+340)

Look, I get it. The odds are terrible. And yet, it’s still probably a good bet.

McCaffrey has scored 14 touchdowns this season. He’s scored San Francisco’s first touchdown in six of 10 games, and that has been the opening TD of the game four times.

Seattle has conceded 11 rushing touchdowns this season (tied for seventh-most in the NFL), compared to just 13 through the air (T-15th).

In a game where San Francisco is a 6.5-point favorite on the road against a potentially injured quarterback, I expect the Niners to find the end zone first. With that being the case and McCaffrey being the most likely candidate, this bet is worth a shot.


John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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