NFL Week 12 Predictions & Picks

Doug Bonjour
Last Updated: Nov 22, 2023

Believe it or not, we’ve reached the Thanksgiving portion of the NFL schedule.

As tradition has it, the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys will entertain us throughout the afternoon as we indulge ourselves in an endless helping of food.

To prepare you for the holiday weekend, let’s dive into our NFL Week 12 best bets.

NFL Week 12 Predictions

All NFL betting odds used for these Week 12 predictions are current as of Tuesday, Nov. 21, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction

Best Bet: DAL -11 (-115)

Four days after losing to Tommy DeVito and the lowly Giants, the Commanders visit the Cowboys. On Thanksgiving, no less.

Dallas has been a buzzsaw at home. It has won 12 straight games at AT&T Stadium, including four this season by an average of 27.5 points. On top of that, Dak Prescott is 5-0 against Washington at home and has won 14 straight divisional home games altogether.

Hopefully, for Washington’s sake, the turkey is satisfying. Because it’s shaping up to be a long day.

Patriots vs Giants Prediction

Best Bet: NYG +3.5 (-118)

New England is rested coming off its bye, but there’s no magic fix for its woeful offense. The Patriots have scored more than 20 points just once this season, indicating it may be time for them to cut their losses on Mac Jones.

The Giants haven’t been any better. Not only do they rank last in scoring (13.5 PPG), but they’re also 3-7-1 ATS and have covered the spread in just one of their four home games.

Still, this line feels a tad high. Getting the hook makes the Giants a strong play as a home underdog.

Saints vs Falcons Prediction

Best Bet: Under 42 (-108)

With Derek Carr still in concussion protocol, Jameis Winston could be in line to start for New Orleans following the bye. The Saints have been below average offensively, averaging 21.4 points per game.

Meanwhile, the Falcons are turning back to Desmond Ridder.

What? That doesn’t excite you? OK, me neither. In this NFC South battle of blah offenses, I’m comfortable taking the Under.

Steelers vs Bengals Prediction

Best Bet: PIT -1 (-112)

Is the Steelers’ 6-4 record a mirage? It sure seems that way.

Pittsburgh owns a negative point differential (-29) and has been outgained in every game this season. It ranks 28th in scoring (16.6 PPG) and 30th in total yards (2,801). That futility finally led to the firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada.

It’s ugly stuff, but there’s no reason why the Steelers shouldn’t take advantage of the Bengals. Cincinnati is reeling after losing Joe Burrow (wrist) for the season.

I can’t trust Jake Browning, especially when facing Pittsburgh’s opportunistic defense.

Jaguars vs Texans Prediction

Best Bet: HOU +1.5 (-112)

I’m all-in on C.J. Stroud. How can you not be?

The Texans, a preseason longshot to win the AFC South, have won three straight to move to 6-4. They’re right on the Jaguars’ heels, with a chance to even surpass them (via the head-to-head tiebreaker) this week.

Stroud has been a bit careless with the ball over the last two weeks, turning it over a combined six times. But he has made up for it with back-to-back 300-plus yard passing performances. His 1,162 yards over the last three games are the most by any rookie over that span in NFL history.

The Jaguars’ defense, by the way, has struggled mightily to defend the pass. And I don’t see that changing anytime soon.


Doug Bonjour

Doug covered college and prep sports in Connecticut for more than a decade, including stints as the UConn women’s basketball and UConn football beat reporter for Hearst Connecticut Media. During his time reporting on the 11-time national champion Huskies, he covered three NCAA Final Fours. He also has written for the Associated Press and New York Times.

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