My NFL Week 18 prop bets finished with a 4-2 record, giving me some momentum heading into the postseason.
I connected on a pair of plus-money plays (NYG Over 19.5 points and Dalton Schultz Over 4.5 receptions) and will look to continue to provide value on this shorter six-game slate.
Let’s dig into my favorite NFL props for Super Wild Card Weekend.
All NFL betting odds used for these wild card props are current as of Thursday, Jan. 11, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Wild Card Player Props
Justin Watson: Long Rec Over 15.5 Rec Yds (-115)
If the Kansas City Chiefs are going to continue their Super Bowl title defense beyond Super Wild Card Weekend, they are going to need a pass-catcher not named Travis Kelce or Rashee Rice to step up.
In the Week 9 matchup between the Chiefs and Dolphins, Miami was able to limit Patrick Mahomes’ two most trusted targets to a combined five catches and 31 receiving yards.
Dolphins DC Vic Fangio will likely have veteran CB Jalen Ramsey shadow the rookie Rice while bracketing Kelce with a pair of defenders.
That will open up opportunities for Watson, who is Kansas City’s top wideout against man coverage. The 27-year-old averaged 17 yards per catch during the regular season and went over this prop in nine games.
Taking Watson Over 22.5 receiving yards (-120) is also worth a look, especially since he could clear that total with one catch, but I’ll take the safer option with slightly better odds.
David Njoku: Over 5.5 Recs (-115)
The biggest beneficiary of Joe Flacco’s presence under center for the Cleveland Browns has arguably been his veteran tight end.
In five games with Flacco, Njoku has seen 45 targets and turned those into 30 receptions and 390 receiving yards.
- Check out my favorite NFL Wild Card parlays.
With Houston’s secondary likely to be overly focused on slowing Browns WR Amari Cooper, who torched the Texans for 265 yards and two scores in Week 16, Njoku should command single coverage over the middle.
Njoku has seen at least eight targets and made at least six receptions in each of his last four games. After resting in Week 18, expect the 27-year-old to make his presence felt on Saturday afternoon.
Jordan Love: Over 1.5 Pass TDs (-125)
The Green Bay Packers are one of the surprise teams in this year’s playoff field because of the continually improving play of their quarterback.
Jordan Love has played mistake-free football since the midpoint of the season, throwing 18 touchdown passes and just one interception in Green Bay’s final eight games.
The former first-round pick tossed at least two TD passes in seven of those eight games and cleared this number 11 times during the regular season.
In a wild-card matchup against the Dallas Cowboys that has an Over/Under of 50.5 points, the Packers will have to trade touchdowns to keep up with their high-scoring hosts.
Given all those factors, expect Love to clear this threshold in his first playoff start.
NFL Wild Card Prop Bets
Rams vs Lions: Both Teams Score 1+ Rush TD (-125)
Heading into Sunday night’s Rams-Lions contest, there is a lot of talk about the quarterback matchup between Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff.
Of course, that makes sense since those two were traded for each other in January 2021. However, I’m going to focus on each team’s rushing attack for this wager.
The Lions ran for 27 touchdowns during the regular season, tying for the league lead with Miami and San Francisco.
At its core, Detroit is a run-first team. Dan Campbell wants to be more physical than the opponent, and the talented RB tandem of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should get a few red-zone chances in a game with a projected total of 51.5 points.
The Rams’ rushing attack has also been key to their success, especially in the red zone. Kyren Williams scored 12 rushing TDs in 12 games, notching five of those over his final three regular-season appearances.
In what should be a back-and-forth contest, expect both teams to find the end zone at least once via the ground game.
Steelers vs Bills: BUF 1H -5.5 (-112)
The most lopsided matchup of Super Wild Card Weekend sees the Buffalo Bills host the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Instead of backing Buffalo as a double-digit favorite, taking this first-half spread is a more appealing option.
- Read more on this game in our NFL Wild Card Predictions.
The Steelers were one of the worst first-half teams away from home this season, covering the first-half spread just twice in their eight road games.
Pittsburgh will have a tough time slowing down Josh Allen, who led the Bills to an average of 16.8 points in the first 30 minutes of their home games this season.
This game could be over early.
Eagles vs Buccaneers: TB Over 2.5 TDs (+130)
After successfully betting on the Giants at plus-money against the Eagles last week, I’m going back to the well with Tampa Bay on Monday night.
Philadelphia has allowed at least three touchdowns in six of its last seven games, including two contests against New York and one against the lowly Arizona Cardinals.
The only team the Eagles held Under three touchdowns during that stretch was a Seattle Seahawks squad quarterbacked by Drew Lock.
The Buccaneers scored just 22 points over the season’s final two weeks and haven’t been able to run the ball effectively all season, but this matchup looks promising for Baker Mayfield.
Philly ranked 31st in passing yards allowed per game during the regular season (252.7), meaning Mayfield and Mike Evans could hit some big plays against the Eagles’ secondary.
This prop probably lands on two or three, but I’ll take my chances on the plus-money to cash out again.