After hitting five of my previous nine parlays, my heater came to an end in Week 18 as I ended the regular season with an 0-3 week.
In retrospect, adding the meaningless 49ers-Rams game to my best parlay was a mistake. However, I can’t defend my horrible Falcons-Saints SGP, which was well wide of the mark.
I’ll try to pick things back up in the postseason with my favorite NFL Wild Card parlays.
NFL Wild Card Parlay Picks
All NFL betting odds used for these Wild Card parlay picks are current as of Thursday, Jan. 11, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Parlay: CLE-HOU Over 44.5 + BUF ML (+129)
Longshot Parlay: GB +7.5 + BUF 1H -5.5 + DET ML + TB ML (+1215)
Same Game Parlay: MIA +4.5 + Under 43.5 (+267)
NFL Wild Card Best Parlay Bet
Best Wild Card Parlay (+129)
- Browns vs Texans Over 44.5 (-110)
- Bills ML (-500) vs Steelers
With a limited slate for Super Wild Card Weekend, keeping my best NFL parlay small seems like a good idea.
I’m starting things off with one of my favorite plays of the slate: the Over in Saturday’s postseason opener between the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans.
Although the Browns boast one of the best defenses in the NFL, that unit hasn’t traveled well this season. Cleveland allowed a league-low 13.9 points per game at home but surrendered 29.6 points per game on the road (tied for most in the league).
Unsurprisingly, the result of that massive split saw Overs go a perfect 8-0 on Cleveland’s travels during the regular season.
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And while the postseason hasn’t traditionally been kind to rookie quarterbacks, C.J. Stroud isn’t your average rookie. The Ohio State product threw for over 4,100 yards and had a 23:5 TD:INT ratio in his first NFL season, leading the Texans to an AFC South title.
Houston managed to put some points on the board in a 36-22 Week 16 home defeat to Cleveland when Stroud was injured, and I’d expect a higher output with him under center on Saturday.
To add some extra juice to this parlay, we’ll tack on the Buffalo Bills to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers. Buffalo is one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, while Pittsburgh was statistically the worst team to make the postseason.
Without defensive game-wrecker T.J. Watt (knee), I don’t see how the Steelers could pull off this massive upset.
NFL Wild Card Longshot Parlay Bet
Longshot Wild Card Parlay (+1215)
- Packers +7.5 (-115) @ Cowboys
- Bills 1H -5.5 (-110) vs Steelers
- Lions ML (-166) vs Rams
- Buccaneers ML (+130) vs Eagles
Our latest NFL longshot parlay kicks off with the Green Bay Packers to cover the spread against the Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys are a perfect 8-0 at AT&T Stadium this season and haven’t lost at home since their 2022 season opener. While I expect that run to continue, the Packers can keep this game close or get in the back door late.
Jordan Love and this young Green Bay offense have been impressive over the second half of the season, leading the team to wins over fellow playoff teams in Detroit and Kansas City. Staying within a touchdown shouldn’t be a problem.
I’ll pair the Pack with the Bills to cover the first-half spread against a Steelers team that has struggled mightily in the opening 30 minutes on the road this season.
This is one of my favorite NFL Wild Card prop bets, especially with the Buffalo defense holding up its end of the bargain the way it has in recent weeks.
Many people believe Rams QB Matthew Stafford is going to knock off his old team in Detroit on Sunday night, but I’ll side with the hosts in what should be a high-scoring contest.
The Lions have a significant special teams advantage against LA, which ranked dead last in the category and changed kickers 10 days ago. That could be crucial in a close game.
Lastly, I’ll wrap this longshot parlay up with my favorite upset pick of the week. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won five of six, while the Philadelphia Eagles have lost five of six.
Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans should have a field day against a struggling Philly secondary, making the home team an intriguing moneyline play at plus-money odds.
NFL Wild Card Same Game Parlay Bet
Dolphins vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay (+267)
- Dolphins +4.5 (-110)
- Under 43.5 (-108)
One of the marquee matchups of Super Wild Card Weekend will see the Kansas City Chiefs host the Miami Dolphins.
On paper, this matchup screams offense. And when you start listing off the names that will take part in this game — Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, etc. — the thought of taking an Under isn’t intriguing.
However, when these two teams met during the regular season in Germany, the Chiefs escaped with a 21-14 victory.
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Miami’s offense has been out of whack in recent weeks, failing to top 22 points in its last three regular-season games.
Meanwhile, Kansas City’s offense has arguably been out of whack all season. The Chiefs averaged 21.8 points per game this year, nearly eight points fewer than it scored during the 2022 campaign.
In what should be a low-scoring contest, I’ll take the points with Miami. Kansas City winning by a field goal feels like the most likely outcome.