NFL Prop Bets Week 18

John Arlia
Last Updated: Jan 4, 2024

The final week of the NFL regular season has arrived, which means this is our last opportunity to wager on a full slate of NFL props until September.

However, Week 18 also provides plenty of great prop betting spots, with players looking to hit season-long statistical incentives and teams needing various results to qualify for the postseason.

With all that in mind, let’s dig into my favorite NFL Week 18 prop bets.

All NFL betting odds used for these Week 18 props are current as of Thursday, Jan. 4, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Player Props Week 18

Dalton Schultz: Over 4.5 Receptions (+114)

Schultz is one player working towards season-long incentives this week.

With four catches in the season finale, the Texans’ veteran tight end would earn $250,000. With six or more, he would earn $500,000.

Incentive-focused bets are no sure thing, as teams typically want to find ways to avoid paying extra money. Just look at the Russell Wilson situation in Denver.

However, this feels like a good spot to back Schultz as Houston is fighting for a playoff spot. The Colts have allowed 85 catches to tight ends this season (5.3 per game) and the return of C.J. Stroud gives the Texans’ passing attack a much higher floor.

Plus, the continued absence of WR Tank Dell means increased targets for Schultz and Robert Woods. He should get the ball plenty on Saturday.

James Conner: Over 70.5 Rush Yds (-115)

The Arizona Cardinals might not be playing for anything, but you wouldn’t know that from watching Conner carry the rock last week.

The former Steelers running back amassed 128 rushing yards on 26 carries against the Philadelphia Eagles, helping his team secure a massive upset victory.

To finish off the season, Arizona hosts the rival Seattle Seahawks, who allowed Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris (27 carries, 122 yards) and Jaylen Warren (13 carries, 75 yards) to each surpass this total last week.

Seattle ranks 30th in the NFL against the run, allowing 134.1 yards per game, setting Conner up for another big day.

Jared Goff: Under 1.5 TD Passes (-120)

Lions head coach Dan Campbell says the plan is to play his starters against the Vikings on Sunday, even though Detroit has wrapped up the NFC North and is likely to be the NFC’s No. 3 seed.

And while we learned last Saturday night that Campbell is aggressive to a fault, I don’t see him risking Goff and other key starters late in the second half of a relatively meaningless game against the blitz-heavy Vikings.

Whether he gets some time off or not remains to be seen, but Detroit may be more cautious with TE Sam LaPorta (ankle) and WR Jameson Williams (ankle), who got nicked up in last week’s loss to Dallas.

While Detroit has plenty of other weapons in the passing game, I expect OC Ben Johnson to lean on the run to get to next week with as little wear and tear as possible.

NFL Prop Bets Week 18

Falcons vs Saints: Under 4.5 Touchdowns (-110)

The first meeting between these two NFC South rivals this season was a festival of field goals.

Saints kicker Blake Grupe accounted for New Orleans’ 15 points with five field goals (on six attempts), while Atlanta’s Younghoe Koo connected on one of his own.

The Falcons scored three touchdowns in their 24-15 victory, but one came from a pick-six.

Atlanta boasts the third-best red-zone defense in the NFL, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on just 42.55% of their trips inside the 20. New Orleans ranks 12th in that category (52.3%) and is even stingier at home (50%).

With both teams needing to win to keep their postseason hopes alive, this game should be tense and, therefore, low-scoring.

Expect plenty more field goals and less than five touchdowns.

Steelers vs Ravens: PIT Under 20.5 Points (-115)

The Pittsburgh Steelers need to defeat the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday to keep their faint playoff hopes alive.

And while the Ravens technically have nothing to play for after securing the AFC’s No. 1 seed last week, they’re not going to let their biggest rival walk all over them at home.

Tyler Huntley is more than capable of running Baltimore’s offense should Lamar Jackson sit, and this well-schemed defense should cause Mason Rudolph problems regardless of the personnel.

Pittsburgh has scored 30-plus points in its last two games, which along with the potential rest factor, is incorrectly elevating this team total.

The Steelers have failed to eclipse 20 points in each of their last six games against Baltimore and are still averaging just 17.9 points per game this season.

This bar feels too high for Rudolph and Co. to clear.

Eagles vs Giants: NYG Over 19.5 (+120)

Taking the Giants to go Over 16.5 points (-135) is the safer play, but I will keep fading the Eagles’ defense until it proves it can stop anyone.

Philadelphia allowed 35 points to the lowly Arizona Cardinals at home last week, extending its streak of surrendering 20-plus points to six straight games.

That streak includes a 25-point performance by these same New York Giants, who scored just three points in the first half with Tommy DeVito under center.

As it proved in the second half of that game and last week against the Rams, New York’s offense has much more juice with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback.

It may take until garbage time, but the Giants should get to 20 against this porous Philly defense.


John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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