I connected on two of my three NFL Week 17 parlays, continuing a strong run of recent form down the back stretch of the regular season.
And last week could have been even better had the Atlanta Falcons not laid an egg against the Chicago Bears as I fell one pick (ATL ML) short of a full sweep.
With perfection being the goal, I’ll try to close out the campaign and start 2024 on a high note.
Let’s dig into my NFL Week 18 parlays.
NFL Week 18 Parlay Picks
All NFL betting odds used for these Week 18 parlays are current as of Thursday, Jan 4, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Parlay: HOU -1.5 + SF ML + BUF ML (+363)
Longshot Parlay: TEN ML + WAS ML (+1752)
Same Game Parlay: ATL +3.5 + Under 42 (+252)
NFL Week 18 Best Parlay Bet
Week 18 Best Parlay (+363)
- Texans -1.5 (-108) at Colts
- 49ers ML (-205) vs Rams
- Bills ML (-162) at Dolphins
The AFC South matchup between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts on Saturday night has significant stakes.
The winner will secure a playoff berth. The loser’s season will end.
Indianapolis has been impressively resilient this year and has the benefit of playing at home, but Houston is the better team per DVOA and has the better quarterback in C.J. Stroud. I like the Texans to win and cover this short spread.
- Get our top moneyline, ATS, and Over/Under plays in our NFL Week 18 picks.
In a game with much less at stake, I like the San Francisco 49ers to knock off the Los Angeles Rams. Both teams are starting backup quarterbacks this week, though at least San Fran’s Sam Darnold has seen the field more recently than Carson Wentz.
Kyle Shanahan has dominated Sean McVay in recent years, winning nine of 10 games against LA since the start of 2019. Look for that trend to continue on Sunday.
To wrap things up, we’ll take the Buffalo Bills to defeat the Dolphins and wrestle away the AFC East crown from Miami.
Josh Allen and Co. have won four straight and are playing their best football at the best time of the year. Meanwhile, Miami was throttled by Baltimore last week and is dealing with a lengthy injury list.
NFL Week 18 Longshot Parlay Bet
Week 18 Longshot Parlay (+1752)
- Titans ML (+185) vs Jaguars
- Commanders ML (+550) vs Cowboys
NFL Week 18 often gets weird, and this longshot parlay fits that mood.
The Tennessee Titans are already eliminated from postseason contention, but they can play spoiler against the rival Jaguars.
Jacksonville has been trending in the wrong direction lately, losing four of its last five games.
It also isn’t at full strength on offense, with QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder/finger) and wideouts Christian Kirk (groin) and Zay Jones (hamstring/knee) being limited at practice this week. Even if they all suit up, they won’t be 100%.
That gives the Titans a chance to make this game interesting, especially at home, where Tennessee is 4-3 this season.
Plus, this could be the final game in a Titans uniform for backup Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry, who will also be using this as a final audition for new teams. That duo will want to go out with a win, and I won’t be shocked if they get it.
- Check out my favorite NFL Week 18 props.
We’ll pair the Titans with an even bigger underdog in the Washington Commanders, who will look to deny the Dallas Cowboys the NFC East title on Sunday.
Washington has been dreadful for much of the season, losing seven straight and nine of its last 10 games. Meanwhile, Dallas has won six of eight and thrashed the Commanders 45-10 on Thanksgiving.
However, the Cowboys were in a similar spot last season, coming to Washington in Week 18 with the division title still on the line. They lost to Sam Howell and Co. 26-6.
Motivation isn’t everything, so we’ll go against it again here and try to cash in on these long odds.
NFL Week 18 Same Game Parlay Bet
Falcons vs Saints Same Game Parlay (+252)
- Falcons +3.5 (-118) at Saints
- Under 42 (-110)
While this NFC South battle has potential playoff implications, there won’t be many neutrals tuning in to see what happens in the latest meeting between Atlanta and New Orleans. So, let’s make things more intriguing with a Falcons-Saints same-game parlay wager.
The Under has an 11-5 mark (68.8%) in New Orleans’ games this season and is 10-6 (62.5%) in Atlanta’s contests. That makes sense since both teams have been wildly inconsistent on offense, especially when it comes to quarterback play, and boast two of the better red-zone defenses in the NFL.
- Stay up to date on the latest NFL Week 18 odds & betting lines.
The first meeting of the season between these two teams saw Atlanta win 24-15, and the most recent contest at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans saw the Saints emerge victorious 21-18.
A repeat of either would cash this SGP for us.