After going 2-4 in back-to-back weeks, my Week 12 NFL props column bounced back with a 5-1 record.
My only losing bet was Cardinals kicker Matt Prater Over 1.5 field goals made (he went 0-for-1).
Heading into Week 13, which begins on Thursday night with the Seattle Seahawks taking on the Dallas Cowboys, I hope to stay above .500 for the second straight week.
Let’s dive into my best NFL Week 13 prop bets.
All NFL betting odds used for these Week 13 props are current as of Tuesday, Nov. 28, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Player Props Week 13
Jaylen Waddle: Over 69.5 Rec Yds (-115)
After lighting up the Jets for 114 yards in Week 12, Waddle will face a struggling Commanders’ pass defense that has given up the third-most yards per game (264.6) in the NFL this season.
The young receiver gets overlooked by Tyreek Hill at times, but Washington must account for Waddle’s speed on the perimeter. The Commanders rank 24th in DVOA-WR2 but only allow 44.7 yards per game to the position, per FTN Fantasy.
Waddle has only gone Over 69.5 receiving yards in four of 10 games but has seen 7.7 targets per game. I also like Waddle’s anytime touchdown prop (+115) as Washington has allowed 18 TDs to opposing WRs this season.
Trey Palmer: Over 2.5 Recs (-120)
The Buccaneers have two star-studded wide receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but rookie Trey Palmer has started to carve out a role within Dave Canales’ offense.
Last week against the Colts, Palmer recorded four receptions (on five targets) for 17 yards. The rookie wide receiver has gone Over 2.5 receptions in four of his last five games. Palmer is averaging five targets per game over that span.
- Check out our favorite NFL Week 13 parlays.
The 22-year-old will look to keep this streak going against the Panthers, who are ranked second in DVOA-WR3. Based on advanced stats, it’s not an ideal matchup.
But with Evans and Godwin commanding a lot of attention, Palmer will have opportunities on Sunday.
Tyler Allgeier: Over 32.5 Rush Yds (-110)
The second-year running back shares snaps with rookie Bijan Robinson, but he’s still finding ways to make an impact.
Allgeier has rushed for 466 yards and three touchdowns on 135 carries this season. The 23-year-old is coming off a solid performance against New Orleans, where he rushed for 64 yards on 10 carries.
On Sunday, he will face a Jets’ defense that has surprisingly struggled against the run this season (140.3 yards per game allowed).
Allegeier has gone Over 32.5 rushing yards in seven of his last 11 games and should get the job done in New York.
NFL Prop Bets Week 13
Dolphins vs Commanders: MIA Over 14.5 1H Points (-110)
The Dolphins are 9.5-point road favorites against the Commanders on Sunday after their 34-13 win over the New York Jets on Black Friday. However, instead of taking Miami to cover the spread, I’ll play their first-half team total.
The Dolphins have the third-best first-half scoring offense (16.5 points per game) in the NFL this season. Miami scored 17 first-half points in last week’s road win over the Jets and averages 13.8 first-half points per road game this season.
However, they have a favorable matchup against a Washington defense that ranks 32nd in opponent first-half points per game (14.8).
It wouldn’t be shocking to see Tua Tagovailoa attack this subpar Washington pass defense, which has allowed 264.6 passing yards per game and 18 touchdowns to WRs.
Look for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to have big games.
Falcons vs Jets: NYJ Under 16.5 Points (-125)
The Jets’ offense didn’t look spectacular with Tim Boyle under center last week, as they only scored 13 points and recorded 159 total yards against the Dolphins.
New York will face the Falcons’ defense on Sunday, which held the Saints to 15 points (five field goals) in Week 12. Atlanta’s defense has been solid this season, allowing 21.1 points per game (14th-most in the NFL) and 5.1 yards per play (11th-best in the NFL).
- Read more on this game in our NFL Week 13 predictions & picks.
Is there a chance the Jets’ offense finds life against the Falcons?
It’s possible, as Atlanta has allowed 25 or more points in two straight road games. However, New York has gone Under 16.5 points in five consecutive games and owns the third-lowest-scoring offense in the NFL (14.8 PPG).
Cardinals vs Steelers: Over 3.5 Field Goals Made (-105)
I was successful with this prop in last week’s Falcons-Saints game, so why not run it back for this Week 13 matchup between the Cardinals and Steelers?
Pittsburgh’s offense looked better last week in their first game after firing OC Matt Canada, but the Steelers still needed kicker Chris Boswell, who made three field goals for the second time in the past three games.
The Cardinals have allowed 1.6 field goals per game this season (11th in the NFL), while the Steelers have given up 2.1 field goals per game (26th in the NFL).
And while Arizona kicker Matt Prater let me down last week, going 0-for-1 on field goals in a blowout loss to the Los Angeles Rams, he has made at least two field goals in five of 11 games this season.
The Over/Under for Sunday’s game is set at 41 points, which is a good spot for a few field goals.