My Week 10 props column went an unflattering 2-4 after I hit four out of six prop bets in Week 9.
The only two prop bet wins I had were Christian McCaffrey Over 31.5 receiving yards (he had 47) and the Baltimore Ravens team total Over 20.5 points (they scored 31).
I hope to turn my luck around as we prepare for an exciting NFL Week 11 slate, which kicks off Thursday night when the Ravens host the Cincinnati Bengals.
Here are my best NFL Week 11 prop bets.
All NFL betting odds used for these Week 11 props are current as of Tuesday, Nov. 14, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Player Props Week 11
Christian Kirk: Over 58.5 Rec Yds (-130)
Jaguars wide receiver Christian Kirk is coming off an impressive game last week against the 49ers, where he had six receptions (on 11 targets) for 104 yards.
Kirk will now go up against a Titans defense that has struggled to defend opposing wideouts this season. Tennessee ranks 31st in DVOA-WR1 and allows 86.3 receiving yards per game to its opponent’s top target, per FTN Fantasy.
In their last two games, the Titans allowed Pittsburgh’s Diontae Johnson and Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans to go for 90 and 143 receiving yards, respectively.
Kirk has gone Over 58.5 receiving yards in five out of nine games and should add to that on Sunday.
Trey McBride: Over 54.5 Rec Yds (-115)
The second-year tight end had a breakout game with Kyler Murray back under center in last week’s win over the Falcons. McBride posted eight receptions (on nine targets) for 131 yards and played 77% of offensive snaps (his second-highest amount this season).
McBride will likely see a lot of snaps and targets on Sunday against a Texans defense that ranks 25th in DVOA-TE and allows 70.2 receiving yards per game to the position, per FTN Fantasy.
- Check out our favorite NFL Week 11 parlays.
The Colorado State product has only gone Over 54.5 receiving yards in three out of 10 games this season. But within those three games, McBride averaged 9.3 targets per game and played more than 55% of offensive snaps.
With that usage expected to continue, his production should as well.
Jerome Ford: Over 49.5 Rush Yds (-110)
With the Browns starting rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson against the Steelers on Sunday, we should expect to see a heavy workload for Ford and Kareem Hunt.
Ford is coming off a great game against Baltimore last week, carrying the ball 17 times for a career-high 107 rushing yards. It’s the second time this season that Ford posted 100-plus rushing yards in a game. Coincidentally, the first time was against Pittsburgh in Week 2 (106).
The second-year running back has gone Over 49.5 rushing yards in four out of nine games this season and should be able to exploit a Pittsburgh run defense allowing 131.2 yards per game (eighth-most in the NFL).
NFL Prop Bets Week 11
Cowboys vs Panthers: DAL Over 26.5 Points (-120)
The Cowboys’ offense has been on another level recently, averaging 38.3 points and five touchdowns per game over their last three contests.
That is bad news for the Panthers’ defense, which has allowed 3.2 touchdowns per game this season (32nd in the NFL).
Although Dallas has only scored 27-plus points on the road once this season (they put up 40 at the Giants in Week 1), the Cowboys shouldn’t have any problems against Carolina’s 30th-ranked scoring defense (26.9 PPG allowed).
Dallas’ defense could also manufacture a couple of extra possessions, especially since Panthers rookie QB Bryce Young is capable of throwing multiple interceptions in a game.
Giants vs Commanders: NYG-WAS 1H Under 19.5 Points (-108)
The last time these two NFC East rivals met, the Giants won 14-7 at MetLife Stadium in Week 7. New York jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first half, and that was all the offense they needed to secure the win.
These are two of the worst first-half offenses in football, as the Giants rank last in the league in first-half points per game (4.2) while the Commanders rank 22nd (9.7).
- Read more on this game in our NFL Week 11 predictions & picks.
Washington’s offense has played better in the first half lately, averaging 12 points in the opening 30 minutes of their last three games. However, New York’s offensive woes have reached new lows with third-string QB Tommy DeVito.
Bettors should prepare for another low-scoring first half between these two rivals.
Titans vs Jaguars: JAX Over 2.5 TDs (-110)
The Jaguars were overmatched by the 49ers in Week 10 as San Francisco held them to a season-low three points. It was a disappointing showing from Trevor Lawrence and the rest of Jacksonville’s offense, which went into the bye week on a five-game winning streak.
The good news for Doug Pederson’s squad is it will face a Titans defense that allowed 20 points to the Buccaneers and the Steelers (both bottom-10 offenses) in consecutive weeks.
It won’t be an easy task for the Jaguars to score three touchdowns on Sunday, but if they can get Travis Etienne Jr. established with the ground attack against the Titans’ defense (120.3 rushing yards per game allowed on the road), the path to at least 21 points is there.