NFL Week 11 Predictions & Picks

Doug Bonjour
Last Updated: Nov 15, 2023

The betting public is forecasting a slew of lopsided games in Week 11.

Five of the matchups already have double-digit spreads, including the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers and New York Giants vs Washington Commanders.

Let’s break down some of those matchups and more as part of our best bets for Sunday’s NFL slate.

NFL Week 11 Predictions

All NFL betting odds used for these Week 11 predictions are current as of Monday, Nov. 13, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Buccaneers vs 49ers Prediction

Best Bet: SF -10.5 (-110)

With their Week 10 rout of the Jacksonville Jaguars, the 49ers reminded everyone how dominant they are at full strength. San Francisco came off its bye and wallopped the Jags, racking up 437 yards of total offense behind a brilliant performance from Brock Purdy.

Most importantly, Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams seemed to make it through the game healthy.

Although Tampa Bay beat the Tennessee Titans to end its four-game slide, it returns to the road for the third time in four weeks.

While the Buccaneers (6-3 ATS, 4-2 as an underdog) have fared fairly well against winning teams, they’ve yet to take down any of the big boys, including the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions.

Giants vs Commanders Prediction

Best Bet: NYG +10 (-110)

The Giants’ misery continued in Week 10 with a 49-17 loss to Dallas. They were outgained by 468 yards, the largest difference in an NFL game in 44 years.

If that’s not bad enough, several sideline spats between players showed a team that’s breaking apart at the seams. There’s no saving New York, at least not this season.

That said, this spread seems a bit large. Are the Commanders, who are 0-3 ATS as a favorite and 4-6 overall, really 10 points better than their NFC East rivals?

They’ve already lost once to New York this season, although the Giants had a semi-competent quarterback at that point in Tyrod Taylor.

I like Washington here, just not at -10.

Chargers vs Packers Prediction

Best Bet: LAC -3 (-120)

The Los Angeles Chargers keep finding ways to lose. They’re now 2-4 in one-score games after falling 41-38 to Detroit in Week 10.

But that shouldn’t matter much here. This is a prime bounce-back spot.

Jordan Love simply isn’t getting it done for the Green Bay Packers. He’s averaging just 6.7 yards per attempt (23rd in the NFL) and is tied for the league lead with 10 interceptions. Even at Lambeau Field, he can’t be trusted.

Seahawks vs Rams Prediction

Best Bet: SEA -1.5 (-110)

The Los Angeles Rams’ 30-13 thumping of Seattle in Week 1 seems like eons ago, doesn’t it? Los Angeles has dropped three straight and four of five to drop to 3-6.

Sean McVay is reportedly optimistic about having Matthew Stafford (thumb injury) back under center following the bye, but will he be 100%? Carson Wentz is now on board as an insurance policy.

Back Seattle at -1.5 while you can.

Jets vs Bills Prediction

Best Bet: Under 40.5 (-110)

The New York Jets have gone Under the total in their last four games and six times overall, including their 22-16 victory over the Buffalo Bills in Week 1. They’re 30th in scoring (16.0 PPG) and still lack a healthy alternative to Zach Wilson at quarterback.

On the flip side, their defense is good enough to keep them in games. They gave Josh Allen fits in the season-opener, and Buffalo just fired OC Ken Dorsey after Monday night’s turnover-filled loss to the Broncos.

That’s enough to sell me on the Under.


Doug Bonjour

Doug covered college and prep sports in Connecticut for more than a decade, including stints as the UConn women’s basketball and UConn football beat reporter for Hearst Connecticut Media. During his time reporting on the 11-time national champion Huskies, he covered three NCAA Final Fours. He also has written for the Associated Press and New York Times.

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