The Super Bowl is NFL prop-betting heaven.
The magnitude of the Big Game is reflected in the size of the prop betting menu, which offers endless game, player, and novelty props for bettors to consider.
As we get set for the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs to battle at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, here are my favorite Super Bowl 58 prop bets.
All NFL betting odds used for these Super Bowl props are current as of Tuesday, Feb. 6, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Super Bowl Player Props
Patrick Mahomes: Under 259.5 Pass Yds (-115)
I would never have considered the Under on his passing yards prop in Mahomes’ first two Super Bowl appearances. However, the circumstances around the all-world quarterback have changed since then, limiting his ceiling.
For one, the Chiefs don’t have the same explosive offense that they did earlier this decade. The absence of a legitimated deep threat (like Tyreek Hill) has forced Mahomes to become more patient, taking what the defense gives him.
Mahomes has matured greatly in that regard over the last year-plus, creating plenty of opportunities for Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice in the short-to-intermediate passing game. This more conservative approach has also given the run game a chance to succeed.
- Check out our full 49ers vs Chiefs predictions.
Isiah Pacheco has been a huge factor in the postseason, seeing an average of 21 carries over the Chiefs’ three games. He has scored in all three victories and rushed for 84.7 yards per game.
This ground-and-pound approach is also more viable for KC now than it ever has been because Steve Spagnuolo has a legitimate defense. The Chiefs have allowed just 41 points in three postseason games, taking some pressure off Mahomes and the offense.
With that all being said, Mahomes has gone Under this number in eight of his last 12 games and four of his last six postseason starts. Look for that trend to continue on Sunday.
Elijah Mitchell: Under 1.5 Rush Att (-120)
San Francisco’s backup running back has been relatively reliable when his number has been called over the course of his career. However, I’m not expecting that to be the case often on Sunday.
In fact, I’d be somewhat surprised if he sees the field at all.
Everyone knows that the 49ers’ best player is Christian McCaffrey, and it’s pretty clear that head coach Kyle Shanahan plans to keep his superstar back in the game as much as possible.
McCaffrey was on the field for 98% of the offensive snaps in the Divisional Round victory over Green Bay — a game in which Mitchell didn’t get a carry — and then featured in 91% of the action against Detroit in the NFC Championship Game.
Mitchell did receive four carries in the victory over the Lions, but all of them came inside the final three and a half minutes after San Francisco had created a 10-point lead.
Given the two-point spread, I don’t expect this game to get out of hand. And since it’s unlikely that CMC is pulled for anything but an injury with the Lombardi Trophy on the line, this feels like a great bet.
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Super Bowl Prop Bets
Both Teams to Score 1+ Rush TD (+125)
If you’ve read this far, you can probably understand why I’m jumping at this plus-money prop.
On the San Francisco side, you’ve got McCaffrey, who feels like free money to score a touchdown in every game he plays. CMC is up to 18 rushing touchdowns on the year, converting via the ground in 13 of the 18 games he has featured in.
- See where CMC ranks in our Super Bowl MVP odds.
On the Kansas City side, you’re betting on Pacheco to continue the touchdown-per-game pace that he has set during this postseason run. The second-year back only scored seven rushing TDs during the regular season, but he’s got just as many since Week 12 (inc. playoffs).
And while I also like the idea of parlaying Pacheco and McCaffrey anytime touchdowns (+150), this gives us a few more outs in case Deebo Samuel or one of the quarterbacks scampers into the end zone.
Total 4th Down Conversions: Under 1.5 (-140)
Despite the juice, this prop feels severely mispriced.
In case the books forgot, Dan Campbell isn’t coaching in this game. Instead, we have a matchup of two of the most conservative decision-makers in the sport.
San Francisco attempted just 13 fourth-down conversions during the regular season while Kansas City went for it 20 times. They succeeded a combined total of 17 times in 18 games.
While the stakes are of course higher now than they are in the regular season, I wouldn’t expect these coaches to completely abandon their philosophies. Both are content to punt it away and let their defenses do their thing.
So far this postseason, San Francisco is 0-1 on fourth down despite multiple negative game scripts, and Kansas City is 2-3 but did not convert multiple times in the same game.
Plus, the Chiefs are also entirely unwilling to let Mahomes run a QB sneak, so even fourth-and-one situations aren’t gimmes for KC.
Take the Under on this successful fourth-down conversion prop.
Super Bowl Novelty Props
Coin Toss Outcome: Tails (+100)
If you’re not sweating the coin toss, did you really bet on the Super Bowl?
Honestly, there’s no better feeling than cashing a wager before the Big Game begins, and DraftKings has the best odds on the coin toss this year.
Whatever side of the coin you pick, don’t pay juice (-105, etc.) to bet a 50-50 proposition.
If you’re into data, Tails has the all-time Super Bowl coin toss lead 30-27 heading into Super Bowl 58. It ended a two-year Heads streak last year, and past results show the coin toss has been more streaky than alternating.
With that said, Tails never fails.
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Jersey of 1st TD Scorer: Over 22.5 (-115)
To polish off our Super Bowl prop betting card, I’m taking the jersey number of the player to score the first touchdown to be Over 22.5.
After glancing up and down the rosters, the volume of potential candidates appears to be with the Under. Players who wear a jersey number Under 23 include Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice, Deebo Samuel, Brock Purdy, and Brandon Aiyuk.
- Go for glory with our Super Bowl parlays.
However, two of the three players with the best odds to score the first touchdown fall on the side of the Over: Christian McCaffrey (+400) and Travis Kelce (+750).
I’ll take my chances with arguably the top playmakers on each team as well as George Kittle, Justyn Watson, and basically every defensive player.