49ers vs Chiefs Predictions & Picks

Doug Bonjour
Last Updated: Feb 7, 2024

Super Bowl 58 is upon us.

The Kansas City Chiefs will face the San Francisco 49ers at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Feb. 11, trying to become the NFL’s first repeat champion since the 2004-05 New England Patriots.

It’s a rematch of Super Bowl 54 in Miami, which Kansas City won 31-20. However, the 49ers opened as slight favorites, and the latest odds have them at -2.

For more insight into the matchup, here are our 49ers vs Chiefs best bets.

49ers vs Chiefs Odds

NFL betting odds are current as of Tuesday, Jan. 30, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: 49ers (-122) vs Chiefs (+102)
  • Spread: 49ers -2 (-105) vs Chiefs +2 (-115)
  • Over/Under: Over 47 (-112) / Under 47 (-108)

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49ers vs Chiefs Matchup

The Chiefs are on the verge of becoming a dynasty, seeking their third Super Bowl title in five seasons.

After an up-and-down regular season, the Chiefs (14-6) have turned it on of late thanks to an all-world quarterback in Patrick Mahomes and an emerging defense guided by Steve Spagnuolo.

Despite that, they’re underdogs against San Francisco, the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The 49ers (14-5) ranked No. 2 in total offense and No. 8 in total defense while producing the third-best point differential at plus-193.

However, they’ve been suspect at best in the playoffs, needing to rally in the second half each of the last two weeks.

49ers vs Chiefs Prediction

Chiefs 27, 49ers 24

Mahomes has played a season’s worth of games in the playoffs as Chiefs quarterback — 17 to be exact.

He’s 14-3 in those starts with 4,802 yards, 39 touchdowns, and just seven interceptions. For those curious, that’s a 106.3 QB rating—ridiculous.

San Francisco may be the more complete team, especially with a healthy Deebo Samuel. But the NFL is a quarterback-coach league and the Chiefs have arguably the best tandem in Mahomes and Andy Reid.

The 49ers haven’t faced a defense as good as Kansas City’s this postseason.

A title repeat is in order for Kansas City.

49ers vs Chiefs Best Bet

Chiefs +2 (-115)

Are we doing this again? Haven’t we learned by now not to bet against Mahomes?

Mahomes hasn’t been an underdog often, but he’s excelled in that role. And that’s putting it mildly. He’s 10-1-1 ATS and 9-3 SU in those games after upending the Ravens as a 4.5-point underdog.

San Francisco has looked vulnerable this postseason, and Kansas City is finding its groove thanks to Mahomes and Travis Kelce and an oft-overlooked defense.

The Chiefs have covered in five straight and will do so again here.

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49ers vs Chiefs Parlay

Best 49ers vs Chiefs Parlay (+370)

  • Chiefs ML (+105)
  • Over 44.5 (-155)
  • Christian McCaffrey: Anytime TD (-210)

San Francisco has been the more dominant team, but the emergence of Kansas City’s defense is a potential game-changer.

The Chiefs allowed the second-fewest points during the regular season and have followed that up by stifling Tua Tagovailoa and Lamar Jackson in the playoffs.

Christian McCaffrey should have success on the ground. He’s run for at least 90 yards in seven of the last eight games, with 11 touchdowns during that span.

Still, the Chiefs have Mahomes, and the 49ers don’t.

49ers vs Chiefs Prop Bet

Christian McCaffrey: To Win MVP (+475)

It’s no surprise that Mahomes is the MVP favorite at +120.

Five of the last seven Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks, and if the Chiefs are to win, it will likely be because Mahomes puts them on his back and carries them.

The same can’t be said for Brock Purdy. The 49ers’ quarterback has been inconsistent this postseason. Instead, it’s McCaffrey who has been the team’s biggest playmaker. McCaffrey has 260 all-purpose yards and four touchdowns in the last two weeks.

On top of that, there’s a general belief that Purdy is a product of Kyle Shanahan’s system. With more variance on that side of the ball in San Francisco, it’s possible that MVP goes to someone other than the quarterback if the 49ers prevail.

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Doug Bonjour

Doug covered college and prep sports in Connecticut for more than a decade, including stints as the UConn women’s basketball and UConn football beat reporter for Hearst Connecticut Media. During his time reporting on the 11-time national champion Huskies, he covered three NCAA Final Fours. He also has written for the Associated Press and New York Times.

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