Super Bowl MVP Odds & Best Bets

John Arlia
Last Updated: Feb 7, 2024

Super Bowl 58 will see the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers square off in a rematch of Super Bowl 54, which was won 31-20 by Kansas City.

Patrick Mahomes took home Super Bowl MVP honors that evening, spearheading his team’s late comeback with 286 passing yards, two touchdown passes, and a rushing score.

Will Mahomes steal the spotlight once again on Feb. 11? Or will someone else supplant him as the Super Bowl’s Most Valuable Player?

Let’s dig into the latest Super Bowl MVP odds and make some best bets.

Super Bowl MVP Odds

NFL betting odds used for these Super Bowl MVP bets are from Wednesday, Jan. 31, and courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

  • Patrick Mahomes (+135)
  • Brock Purdy (+200)
  • Christian McCaffrey (+475)
  • Travis Kelce (+1200)
  • Deebo Samuel (+2500)
  • Isiah Pacheco (+3000)
  • Brandon Aiyuk (+5000)
  • Rashee Rice (+6000)
  • George Kittle (+6000)
  • Nick Bosa (+7500)
  • Chris Jones (+7500)
  • Fred Warner (+10000)

[toplist type="sport" state="" items="2" include=""]

Super Bowl MVP Best Bet

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+135)

Going with the favorite isn’t fun, but I like the Chiefs to win and this price is better than Kansas City moneyline (+110), giving it a slight bit of value.

Quarterbacks have won MVP honors in five of the last seven Super Bowls and 10 of the last 14 dating back to 2010.

Additionally, Mahomes was named MVP each of the previous two times the Chiefs have won the Lombardi Trophy, even though there was a pretty strong case for Damien Williams (133 total yards, two TDs) when these teams met in 2020.

If Kansas City repeats, this award is very likely going to Mahomes once again.

[pick id="170326"]

Super Bowl MVP Favorites

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers (+200)

Given the history of quarterbacks winning this award, Purdy isn’t a bad shout if you think the 49ers are going to avenge their defeat from four years ago.

However, unlike Mahomes, Purdy has a plethora of playmakers that could outshine him, partially explaining the gap between this price and that of Niners moneyline (-130).

There’s also the narrative that has see-sawed throughout the playoffs about Purdy’s ability to lead this team moving forward. His inconsistency has plagued his team at times and could see him get overlooked even if he delivers San Francisco a long-awaited title.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers (+475)

If the Niners win and Purdy is overlooked, McCaffrey is the most obvious option.

The First-Team All-Pro running back has been San Francisco’s most productive player throughout the postseason, amassing 260 total yards and five touchdowns in just two games.

Kansas City’s defense has also been notably susceptible to opposing ground attacks at times this year, meaning McCaffrey could have a greater chance to shine on the game’s biggest stage.

[pick id="170333"]

Super Bowl MVP Contenders

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs (+1200)

Do I even need to explain this one?

Kelce has been Mahomes’ top target for years and has excelled this postseason, leading the Chiefs with 23 receptions, 262 receiving yards, and three touchdowns.

If he has another huge game against San Francisco, we could very well see the veteran tight end receive the MVP trophy on stage next to Taylor Swift.

This isn’t a great price, especially since a tight end has never won Super Bowl MVP honors before, but the picture-perfect narrative and Mahomes voter fatigue could help change that.

[pick id="170334"]

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers (+2500)

Samuel is an intriguing option at this price because there are a number of ways he can affect the game.

Although he is primarily used as a wide receiver, the do-it-all playmaker will probably also get a few carries out of the backfield and has the explosiveness to take any touch to the house.

And while Samuel hasn’t scored in the postseason, you’re banking on his upside here. The 28-year-old had three multi-touchdown games in December and can explode at any time.

As long as he’s 100% healthy, he’ll have a shot to make a significant impact.

Super Bowl MVP Sleepers

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers (+5000)

Aiyuk may have earned NFC Championship Game MVP honors if the award existed thanks to his incredible diving catch that caromed off Lions corner Kindle Vildor and sparked San Fran’s comeback bid in the third quarter.

However, his overall numbers (three receptions, 68 yards, TD) probably weren’t good enough to edge out McCaffrey (132 total yards, two TDs).

Still, we saw the formula for Aiyuk to win Super Bowl MVP play out last week. Make a game-changing play, score at least one touchdown, and win.

100-plus receiving yards would also go a long way to seeing this longshot ticket cash.

[pick id="170330"]

George Karlaftis, EDGE, Kansas City Chiefs (+15000)

The last defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP was Von Miller in 2016.

However, more defensive players (four) have taken home the award than running backs (0) since the start of the century. For the record, receivers have only won five times during that span.

To cash any Super Bowl MVP wager on a defensive player, you’ll probably need that player to either score a defensive touchdown or force a turnover or two in a low-scoring contest.

These wagers are lottery tickets at best, but if you want to go this route, I’d take a flier on the former first-round pick who leads the Chiefs in sacks and tackles for loss in the postseason and has double the odds of his standout teammate Chris Jones.

Past Super Bowl MVP Winners

2023: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

2022: Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams

2021: Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2020: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

2019: Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots

2018: Nick Foles, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

2017: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

2016: Von Miller, LB, Denver Broncos

2015: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

2014: Malcolm Smith, LB, Seattle Seahawks


John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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