After a so-so Week 5 (2-4 on prop bets), I bounced back with a solid 3-3 record for Week 6.
I nearly went a perfect 3-for-3 on player props, but Bears quarterback Justin Fields suffered a dislocated thumb in Sunday’s loss against the Vikings. I took the Over on his passing yards prop (189.5), and Fields finished with 58 yards.
I will try to go above .500 in Week 7 as we have another outstanding slate, which begins Thursday night with the Saints and Jaguars.
Let’s dive into my best NFL Week 7 props.
All NFL betting odds used for these Week 7 props are current as of Thursday, Oct. 19, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Player Props Week 7
DK Metcalf: Over 57.5 Receiving Yds (-125)
The star wide receiver has a favorable matchup this week against the Cardinals, who have been torched by opposing No. 1 wide receivers over the last few weeks. Arizona has given up 100 or more receiving yards to Brandon Aiyuk (148), Ja’Marr Chase (192), and Cooper Kupp (148).
Metcalf should be able to add to that streak on Sunday after recording four receptions (on 10 targets) for 69 yards against the Bengals last week. The 25-year-old has gone Over 57.5 yards in three of his past five games.
Lastly, Arizona has allowed the second-most receiving yards to WRs and ranks 31st in DVOA-WR1 (52.7%) per FTN. Bettors should also look to play his alt-receiving yards prop for 100+ when it becomes available.
Jayden Reed: Over 26.5 Receiving Yds (-125)
The Packers’ rookie wide receiver is coming off his worst performance of the season in Week 5 against the Raiders, making one reception (on two targets) for seven yards. Reed also played a season-low 50% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps.
- Check out Jovan’s favorite NFL Week 7 parlays.
However, the Michigan State product should have a bounce-back performance against the Broncos on Sunday. Denver has allowed the 16th-fewest receiving yards to WRs this season, but they rank 31st in DVOA-WR3, per FTN.
This number is too low for Reed, who has gone Over 26.5 receiving yards in four of his five career games and should only need one or two receptions to get 27 yards.
Rashee Rice: Anytime TD (+240)
Sticking with rookie receivers, I’m putting down a half unit on Kansas City’s Rashee Rice to score a touchdown on Sunday against the Chargers.
Rice has scored two touchdowns this season, the last coming in Week 5 against the Vikings. The former SMU standout has a fantastic matchup against the Chargers, who have allowed seven touchdowns (third-most in the league) to wide receivers this season.
The 6-foot-2 wideout will be defended by Chargers CB Ja’Sir Taylor, who hasn’t allowed a touchdown yet but allows a 101.4 passer rating when targeted. Rice also ranks second in red-zone targets (8) among Chiefs’ pass-catchers behind star tight end Travis Kelce (9).
NFL Prop Bets Week 7
Lions vs Ravens: BAL Over 22.5 Points (-112)
The Ravens struggled mightily in the red zone (1-for-6) in their 24-16 win over the Titans, but when you have a weapon like All-Pro kicker Justin Tucker, you can depend on at least getting some points from those trips.
Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense should fare better inside the red zone this week, as Detroit’s defense allows a red-zone TD in 57.9% of opponents’ trips inside the 20. The Lions are only giving up 18.8 points this season but have allowed 20 points in two of three road contests.
The Ravens have gone Over 22.5 points in four of six games this season and have the playmakers at the skill positions to make some plays against the Lions’ 15th-ranked pass defense (221.2 yards per game).
Falcons vs Buccaneers: ATL-TB 1H Under 19.5 Points (+100)
Sportsbooks might’ve gotten the first-half total wrong in the NFC South matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Both offenses have noticeably struggled in the first half this season, with Tampa Bay averaging 8.6 points (25th in the NFL) and Atlanta scoring 6.0 (29th in the NFL) in the opening 30 minutes.
- Read more on this game in our NFL Week 7 predictions & picks.
Bettors might be tempted to take the Over since the Falcons’ defense allows 12.2 first-half points per game this season and 14.3 over their last three games. However, the Bucs’ offense didn’t look great last week against the Lions, and Baker Mayfield and Co. mustered just three first-half points.
Packers vs Broncos: DEN Under 21.5 Points (-105)
Denver looked putrid last week against the Chiefs, scoring eight points in their Thursday Night Football loss.
Now, the Broncos will return home to play the Packers, who are coming off a bye and looking to get back into the win column.
Russell Wilson and Co. are averaging 21.5 points per game this season (18th in the NFL), but they’ve gone Under this mark in four of six games. The only two games the Broncos scored more than 21.5 points were against the Commanders (33) and Bears (31).
The Packers’ defense allows 22.6 points per game but has only conceded nine touchdowns in 18 red-zone attempts. We might be sweating this prop, but it’s one that I feel confident taking until we see improvements from Wilson and the rest of the Denver offense.