NFL Prop Bets Week 3

Jovan Alford
Last Updated: Sep 21, 2023

After another exciting week of NFL action, bettors will turn the page and prepare for Week 3, which kicks off Thursday night with an NFC showdown between the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers.

In Week 2, bettors saw Overs go 13-3. Underdogs had another profitable week and are covering the spread at a 67% rate through the season’s first two weeks.

My Week 2 props column hit a snag, as I went 1-2 on player props and 1-2 on game props. That being said, I’ll look to turn it around this week, as there are a lot of intriguing matchups to choose from.

Let’s dive into my best Week 3 props as we prepare for another wild week in the NFL.

All NFL betting odds used for these Week 3 prop bets are current as of Tuesday, Sept. 19, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Player Props Week 3

Geno Smith: Over 1.5 Pass TDs (-125)

I haven’t had the best of luck with passing TD props through the first two weeks of the season, but I believe Geno Smith can throw at least two touchdowns against a banged-up Panthers defense.

The veteran quarterback had a fantastic Week 2 performance against Detroit, completing 32-of-41 passes for 328 yards and two touchdowns. I didn’t expect this performance from Smith, as the Seahawks were banged up on the offensive line.

That said, Smith should have another huge performance against a Panthers defense missing LB Shaq Thompson (ankle) and CB Jaycee Horn (hamstring).

Carolina has allowed QBs to complete 77.8% of their passes against zone defense. That is excellent news for Smith, who has an 82.9% completion percentage vs. zone defense through the first two weeks.

Zay Flowers: Over 48.5 Receiving Yds (-115)

The rookie wide receiver has been a primary playmaker in the Ravens offense, leading the team in targets (15), receptions (13), and receiving yards (140).

Flowers will look to add to his totals against the Colts, who have struggled against the pass this season, allowing 287 yards per game. He will likely see coverage from Colts DBs Darrell Baker Jr. (17 receiving yards per reception allowed) and Dallis Flowers (12 receiving yards per reception allowed), making this a favorable matchup for Ravens QB Lamar Jackson.

The former Boston College standout has gone Over 48.5 receiving yards in the first two games of his career and averages 7.5 targets per game. With the Colts having to worry about TE Mark Andrews, Flowers could be set for another breakout game.

CeeDee Lamb: Anytime TD (+115)

The Cardinals’ defense has done a solid job, only allowing one touchdown to an opposing wide receiver this season. However, that should change when the Cowboys come to town this weekend.

Dallas star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb has yet to score a touchdown this season despite leading the team in targets (17), receptions (15), and yards (220). Lamb had a monster performance against the Jets last Sunday, totaling 11 receptions (on 13 targets) for 143 yards.

Lamb will likely be defended by Arizona CB Marco Wilson, who has allowed one TD and a 142.6 passing rating when targeted this season. If Prescott gets this matchup on Sunday, there’s a good chance Lamb will exploit it for a touchdown.

NFL Prop Bets Week 3

Cowboys vs Cardinals: DAL 1Q -2.5 (-125)

The Cowboys have been the best first-quarter scoring offense through the first two weeks of the season, recording 11.5 points per game.

Dallas will look to add to its total against the Cardinals this weekend, who have allowed 3.5 first-quarter points per game. Arizona has played the Commanders and Giants tough in Weeks 1 and 2. However, it hasn’t faced an offense like the Cowboys, who have scored 70 points in their first two games.

Dak Prescott hasn’t turned the ball over, and the Cowboys’ defense is creating multiple turnover opportunities. Cardinals quarterback Joshua Dobbs has done his job to start the season, and I don’t see him making careless mistakes in this game.

However, I also don’t trust this Cardinals’ defense, which gave up 31 points in the second half to the Giants last week, to get stops against Prescott and the Cowboys offense. Expect Dallas to get out to an early lead.

Patriots vs Jets: 1H Under 18.5 Points (-112)

For my second prop bet, I’m targeting the first-half Under between the Patriots and Jets, who are currently struggling on offense.

Through the first two weeks of the 2023 NFL season, New England is scoring 8.5 first-half points per game (23rd in the NFL), while New York averages 6.5. Jets QB Zach Wilson wasn’t great last week against the Cowboys, completing 12-of-27 passes for 170 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions.

Wilson will play a New England defense that has blitzed the quarterback 31 times this season (fourth-most in the NFL) and has tormented him early in his career. The BYU product has thrown two touchdown passes and seven interceptions in four games against the Patriots.

Meanwhile, Mac Jones and the Pats’ offense have yet to play a full four quarters and scored just three points in the first half last week against the Dolphins. The Jets’ defense will be eager to bounce back after getting lit up by the Cowboys in Week 2 and has the playmakers to get some early stops.

Colts vs Ravens: BAL Over 26.5 Points (-115)

After scoring most of their points via the running game in Week 1, the Ravens aired it out last weekend against the Bengals en route to a 27-24 win.

Lamar Jackson had an efficient performance against Cincy, completing 24-of-33 passes for 237 yards and two touchdowns. When he had time in the pocket, the former league MVP found his guys, leading to scores.

  • Stay up to date on the latest trends & line moves with our NFL Week 3 odds.

The Ravens’ offense will try to build off their Week 2 performance against a Colts’ defense allowing 25.5 points per game this season. Indianapolis is surrendering 287 passing yards per game (fourth-most in the NFL), an area new pass-happy OC Todd Monken will look to exploit.

If Baltimore’s defense can contribute a turnover or two against whoever starts at QB for Indy (Gardner Minshew or Anthony Richardson), it could lead to an extra possession or points.


Jovan Alford

Jovan Alford is currently a freelance writer at The Game Day. Before TGD, Jovan was a content producer at The Sporting News, focusing on betting and fantasy sports. He also worked at DraftKings Nation and was previously a sports editor at the Philadelphia Metro. Jovan loves betting on player props and playing daily fantasy sports.

Related articles