NFL Prop Bets Week 17

John Arlia
Last Updated: Dec 28, 2023

My NFL Christmas props were a bit of a dud as I connected on just two of six plays.

However, I feel a bit hard done by as I narrowly missed out on three occasions.

The San Francisco 49ers came up a point short of 20, Rashee Rice fell a catch short of seven (on a team-high 12 targets), and Darren Waller fell five yards short of his projected total after a painful misplaced pass from Tyrod Taylor.

Regardless, we’ll try to be better this week. Let’s dig into my favorite NFL props for Week 17.

All NFL betting odds used for these Week 17 props are current as of Thursday, Dec. 28, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Player Props Week 17

Stefon Diggs: Anytime TD (+120)

Diggs has had a quiet December, making 13 catches for 101 receiving yards in Buffalo’s last three games. However, he has a favorable matchup in Week 17.

The Bills’ No. 1 wideout has dominated the New England Patriots during his time in Buffalo, finding the end zone in the last four regular-season meetings between the AFC East rivals.

In all, Diggs has scored seven touchdowns in seven regular-season games against the Patriots since leaving Minnesota, so his chances of adding to that total seem good given the Bills are heavy favorites in this matchup.

At plus-money odds, I’m taking a shot on Diggs to end his three-game touchdown drought.

Kyren Williams: Over 94.5 Rush Yds (-115)

Williams has been a workhorse for the Los Angeles Rams in recent weeks, earning 20-plus carries in each of the team’s last four games.

Those ample opportunities have translated into an average of 114.5 rushing yards per game.

The Notre Dame product will continue to see the lion’s share of the work this week against a Giants defense that surrenders 134.2 rushing yards per game (29th in the NFL).

Williams has cleared this total in three of his last four outings and rushed for 100-plus yards in six of his last eight appearances. He should continue that trend Sunday in a game LA is favored by 5.5 points.

Mike Evans: Over 64.5 Rec Yards (-115)

Expectations were low for Evans this season with Baker Mayfield taking over the reins of the Buccaneers’ offense after Tom Brady. However, he and Mayfield haven’t missed a beat.

Tampa Bay’s No. 1 wideout has piled up over 1,000 receiving yards for the 10th straight season, matching a feat only previously achieved by Jerry Rice, and Evans leads the team with 13 touchdown catches.

In Week 17, the Bucs will host the New Orleans Saints, who typically represent one of the worst matchups for Evans. However, he won’t have to face cornerback nemesis Marshon Lattimore (ankle) this time around.

After being limited to three catches for 40 yards in New Orleans in Week 4, expect Evans to do more damage in this pivotal NFC South clash.

NFL Prop Bets Week 17

49ers vs Commanders: SF Over 30.5 Points (-125)

After getting throttled at home by the Baltimore Ravens, the San Francisco 49ers are in a perfect bounce-back spot Sunday against the Commanders.

Washington has lost six straight games and is just playing out the string under lame-duck head coach Ron Rivera. The Commanders’ defense has been particularly dreadful during the losing streak, allowing an average of 34.6 points per game.

What’s even more concerning is that Washington has surrendered 30-plus points to both New York teams during this stretch, and the Jets and Giants rank 30th and 31st in the NFL in scoring.

After throwing four interceptions last week in what was the worst outing of his career to date, look for Brock Purdy to regain some confidence against the league’s worst defense.

Cardinals vs Eagles: Shortest Touchdown Under 1.5 Yards (-140)

After hitting this prop in the Eagles-Giants game on Christmas Day, I’m going back to the well with a cheaper alternative to a Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown prop.

Everyone knows Philadelphia goes to the “Brotherly Shove” anytime it is inside the one-yard line, and it’s fair to say that no opposing team has figured out how to stop it.

With his score on Christmas, Hurts now has 15 rushing touchdowns on the season, 10 of which have been of the one-yard variety.

The Eagles are heavy favorites in this matchup and should put some touchdowns on the board, so I like this prop’s chances of cashing us out.

And if Hurts doesn’t get the job done, there’s always a chance that Cardinals running back James Conner powers his way into the end zone from a yard out.

Raiders vs Colts: IND Under 23.5 Points (-112)

When you think of defensively strong teams, you don’t typically think of the Las Vegas Raiders. However, interim head coach Antonio Pierce has his unit playing at an extremely high level.

Las Vegas has held six of its last seven opponents under this total, including the high-flying Miami Dolphins and the Kansas City Chiefs.

While Gardner Minshew and the Colts have put up some high point totals this season, Indy’s offense was exposed a bit last week in Atlanta. The Falcons limited the Colts to 262 total yards (3.9 yards per play) and just 10 points.

Indy won’t get to 24 against a Raiders defense that ranks eighth in the league in scoring defense (19.6 PPG) and has allowed just 15.2 PPG in seven games under Pierce.


John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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