After going 2-4 in Week 13, my weekly NFL props column rebounded with a 3-3 mark in Week 14.
My three winners were T.J. Hockenson Over 51.5 receiving yards (53 yards), Chuba Hubbard Over 48.5 rushing yards (87 yards), and the Baltimore Ravens to score Over 23.5 points (37 points).
We’ll try to collect a few more wins in Week 15, which kicks off with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders.
Let’s dive into my favorite NFL Week 15 prop bets.
All NFL betting odds used for these Week 15 props are current as of Tuesday, Dec. 12, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Player Props Week 15
Courtland Sutton: Over 53.5 Receiving Yds (-115)
Sutton is coming off a solid performance against the Los Angeles Chargers last week, making three receptions (on four targets) for 62 yards and a touchdown. He’ll look to carry that momentum into Saturday’s game against the Detroit Lions.
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Detroit’s defense has struggled against opponents’ No. 1 receiver this season, allowing 71.6 receiving yards per game. Last week, Chicago’s D.J. Moore had six receptions (on 10 targets) for 68 yards and a score.
Sutton has gone Over 53.5 receiving yards in seven of 13 games this season. He’s also averaging 66.5 receiving yards and 5.5 targets per game over his last four outings.
Isaiah Likely: Over 34.5 Receiving Yds (-120)
In the absence of Mark Andrews, the second-year tight end is becoming a playmaker in the Ravens’ offense. That’s a good sign as we head into the final four games of the regular season.
Likely broke out against the Los Angeles Rams last week, recording five receptions (on seven targets) for 83 yards and a touchdown. LA graded out in the bottom third of DVOA-TE rankings entering Week 14, and Likely now has another favorable matchup against Jacksonville on deck.
The Jaguars rank 16th in DVOA-TE, per FTNFantasy, allowing 59 receiving yards per game to the position. Likely has gone Over 34.5 receiving yards in his last two games and will be a factor on Sunday Night Football.
Brandon Aubrey: Over 1.5 FGs Made (-125)
The former USFL standout has arguably been the best kicker in the NFL this season, making all 30 of his field-goal attempts thus far.
Last week against the Eagles, Aubrey went 4-for-4 for the second straight game, this time connecting on three field-goal attempts from 50-plus yards.
- Read more on this game in our NFL Week 15 predictions & picks.
The Cowboys kicker doesn’t have a great matchup on Sunday against the Bills, who have only allowed 1.6 field goals made per game this season (ninth-fewest in the NFL).
However, the total for this matchup is set at 50.5 total points, so we should see plenty of scoring. Plus, Aubrey has made Over 1.5 field goals in nine of 13 games this season.
NFL Prop Bets Week 15
Steelers vs Colts: IND 1H -1.5 (-105)
After losing 34-14 to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14, the Indianapolis Colts will try to get back on track Saturday against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Colts and Bengals played an even first half and were tied at 14 at the break, but Indy fell apart at the seams in the second half. Thankfully, we won’t be betting on the second-half spread this week.
Indianapolis is 7-6 against the spread in the first half this season. It averages 13.3 first-half points (seventh-most in the NFL) but also allows 13.3 first-half points (29th in the league).
Meanwhile, the Steelers are 3-10 ATS in the first half, allowing 12.2 points per game during the first two quarters (22nd in the NFL). I trust Gardner Minshew II to make more plays than Mitchell Trubisky, and for the Colts to cover this short spread.
Falcons vs Panthers: ATL Over 19.5 Points (+102)
The Falcons’ offense has been hard to figure out this season, but they continue to find ways to put points on the board.
Atlanta will hope to kick its offense into high gear against the Panthers, who have allowed 26.2 points per game this season (31st in the NFL).
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The Falcons have scored at least 20 poits in four of their last five games. Atlanta also averages 22.3 points per game against NFC South opposition this season.
When these two rivals met in Week 1, the Falcons scored 24 points. It would not be surprising to see a similar output on Sunday, as Atlanta’s solid rushing offense (132.2 yards per game) should do damage to a Carolina defense that has allowed 21 rushing touchdowns this season.
Commanders vs Rams: LAR Over 27.5 Points (-118)
After scoring 31 points against the Ravens in Week 14, I’ll take the Rams to have another big day against the Commanders.
Washington possesses the worst scoring defense in the NFL this season, allowing 30.4 points per game. Meanwhile, the Rams have gone Over 27.5 points in three straight games.
I don’t see the Commanders’ defense slowing down the trio of Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp, who have made multiple game-changing plays over the last few weeks.