After going 2-4 in Week 8, my props column bounced back in Week 9 with a 4-2 record.
The only two losses I suffered were Jaylen Waddle’s anytime TD prop (+150), and the first-half Under 17.5 points between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans (which saw 23 points scored).
I’ll try to carry the positive momentum into Week 10, which kicks off on Thursday night when the Carolina Panthers visit the Chicago Bears.
Let’s dive into my best NFL props bets for Week 10.
All NFL betting odds used for these Week 10 props are current as of Tuesday, Nov. 7, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Player Props Week 10
Christian McCaffrey: Over 31.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Star running back Christian McCaffrey has been an absolute machine this season for the 49ers, scoring a league-leading 13 total touchdowns while being utilized as a runner and pass-catcher out of the backfield.
McCaffrey has a great matchup on Sunday against the Jaguars defense, which has given up the fourth-most receiving yards to running backs.
- Read more on this game in our NFL Week 10 predictions & picks.
The 27-year-old has gone over 31.5 receiving yards in four of eight games this season, including the 49ers’ most recent game against the Bengals (six receptions for 64 yards).
If San Francisco wants to snap its three-game losing streak, it’ll need to feed McCaffrey early and often on Sunday.
Younghoe Koo: Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-110)
Koo cashed his field goal prop for us last week, so I’ll run it back for Atlanta’s upcoming game against the Cardinals.
The veteran kicker is one of the Falcons’ best weapons on offense, and he’s made 20-of-21 field-goal attempts (95.2%) on the season. Last week against the Vikings, the 29-year-old converted a season-high four field goals.
He will try to add to his total on Sunday against the Cardinals, who have allowed 1.9 field goals made (19th in the NFL) and 2.1 field-goal attempts (15th in the NFL) per game this season. Meanwhile, Koo has made Over 1.5 field goals in six of nine games.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Diontae Johnson: Over 62.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Johnson has been playing on another level since returning from a hamstring injury in Week 7. The veteran wide receiver has produced 20 receptions (on 29 targets) for 254 yards and a touchdown.
Last week against the Titans, Johnson recorded a season-best 90 receiving yards on seven catches, and finally scored a touchdown.
He’s gone Over 62.5 receiving yards in three straight games and has an excellent matchup against the Packers. This season, Green Bay’s defense is ranked 27th in DVOA-WR1 and has allowed 63.8 receiving yards per game.
It seems like Johnson has a great rapport with quarterback Kenny Pickett right now, and I’ll try to cash in on that momentum.
NFL Prop Bets Week 10
Browns vs Ravens: BAL Over 20.5 Points (-122)
The Ravens’ offense has been clicking on all cylinders this season, averaging 26.6 points per game (sixth in the NFL). Baltimore dropped 37 points on the Seahawks last week and has scored 32.5 points per game over its past four contests.
The Ravens will try to build off their latest offensive outburst as they prepare to play the Cleveland Browns for the second time this season. In their first matchup in Week 4, the Ravens scored 28 points as Lamar Jackson recorded four total touchdowns (two passing, two rushing).
- Check out our favorite NFL Week 10 parlays.
The Browns pitched a shutout against the Cardinals last week but had allowed 26.3 points per game over their previous three contests.
As long as the Ravens can pick up yards on the ground against this stout Browns’ run defense (89.8 yards per game allowed), they have a path toward scoring at least 21 points.
Giants vs Cowboys: NYG Under 11.5 Points (-125)
The last time we saw the Giants and Cowboys play, New York lost 40-0 in the SNF regular-season opener at MetLife Stadium.
Since that loss, things haven’t improved for the Giants, who are ranked dead last in scoring offense (11.2 points per game) and just lost Daniel Jones for the rest of the season to a torn ACL.
With Jones done for the year and Tyrod Taylor (ribs) on injured reserve, the Giants will turn to rookie Tommy DeVito. In the six quarters DeVito has played, New York has scored 13 points.
It’s hard to see DeVito and the Giants’ offense having success against a Cowboys defense that is only allowing 18.5 points per game (sixth-fewest in the NFL).
Panthers vs Bears: CHI Over 2.5 TDs (+120)
For my final game prop, I’ll take the Bears to score more than 2.5 touchdowns on Thursday night against the Panthers.
Chicago hopes to have Justin Fields (thumb) back under center after missing the last three games. The last time we saw Fields in primetime, the Bears scored 40 points against the Washington Commanders.
Even without Fields, the Bears have averaged 2.7 touchdowns and three red-zone attempts per game over their last three contests.
It’s also a perfect revenge spot for former Carolina players D.J. Moore and D’Onta Foreman, as the Panthers have allowed 3.7 opponent touchdowns per game (dead last in the NFL) over their past three games.