The Las Vegas Raiders moved on from quarterback Derek Carr this spring after nine seasons, opting instead to sign free agent Jimmy Garoppolo.
The former 49ers QB will link up with head coach Josh McDaniels, his offensive coordinator back in New England.
But was this move an upgrade for the franchise? Star wideout Davante Adams didn’t seem too thrilled about it. So, what does that mean for Las Vegas moving forward?
Let’s examine the Raiders betting odds for the 2023 NFL season.
Raiders Futures Betting Odds
Note: These NFL odds are current as of Thursday, July 6, and provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Win Super Bowl: +6500
- Win AFC Championship: +4000
- Win AFC West: +1200
- Make Playoffs: Yes (+360) / No (-450)
- Regular-Season Win Total: Over 7.5 (+160) / Under 7.5 (-190)
Raiders Super Bowl 58 Odds
Raiders: Win Super Bowl (+6500)
Despite Garoppolo’s arrival and his reunion with McDaniels, the Raiders’ odds of winning Super Bowl 58 seem slim.
Garoppolo, while experienced, has had inconsistency issues in the past. He came close to winning a Super Bowl in San Francisco but was blessed with one of the league’s top defenses and a load of playmakers.
That isn’t exactly the case here. While Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow make up a solid receiving core, and Josh Jacobs won the rushing title a season ago, the Raiders’ defense was a bottom-five unit in yards allowed per game (365.6).
Las Vegas, which finished 6-11 last season, needs to make significant improvements on defense to compete with the top-tier teams in the league.
Raiders AFC Championship Odds
Raiders: Win AFC Championship (+4000)
The Raiders have the fourth-worst AFC Championship odds, sitting only ahead of the Titans (+5500), Colts (+7000), and Texans (+10000).
The AFC is a highly competitive conference, and the Raiders may struggle to keep up.
The decision to swap Carr for Garoppolo is a lateral move at best, especially since this team will likely be involved in some high-scoring games.
Regardless, the Raiders still have a long way to go to compete with the likes of the Chiefs, Bengals, and Bills at the top of the conference.
Raiders AFC West Winner Odds
Raiders: Win AFC West (+1200)
Las Vegas occupies the basement of the AFC West odds, with a significant gap separating it from the Denver Broncos (+550) in third.
The Kansas City Chiefs have dominated this division over the last decade, and the defending Super Bowl champs will be considered the favorites as long as Patrick Mahomes is present.
The Broncos and Chargers have taken steps forward this offseason, leaving the Raiders as heavy underdogs to claim their first division title since 2002.
Raiders Make Playoffs Odds
Raiders: Miss Playoffs (-450)
Given the strength of the competition in the AFC, the Raiders’ odds of making the NFL playoffs in 2023 are low.
Las Vegas has reached the postseason just twice in the last 20 years, most recently doing so in 2021.
This team will need to significantly outperform its recent results to secure a playoff return, which seems unlikely given its current roster construction.
Still, I’m not sure betting $450 on the Raiders to miss the playoffs is worth the potential $100 return.
Raiders Regular-Season Win Total Odds
Raiders: Under 7.5 Wins (-190)
The Raiders’ regular-season win total is set at 7.5 games, with the Over (+160) requiring a two-win improvement from a season ago.
Given that the quarterback change isn’t widely viewed as a positive one, the Under (-190) has attracted a lot of attention.
Las Vegas has a challenging schedule, which features games against the AFC East and NFC North, two divisions with plenty of formidable opponents.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Raiders are currently favored to win just four games, making eight wins a lofty ambition.