The first-ever NFL Black Friday game will see the New York Jets (4-6) host the Miami Dolphins (7-3) in an AFC East clash at MetLife Stadium.
New York’s season is on the verge of collapse after three straight defeats. Meanwhile, Miami will look to extend its lead at the top of the division.
Let’s dig into the latest odds and make some betting picks for this Black Friday matchup.
Dolphins vs Jets Odds
NFL odds are current as of Wednesday, Nov. 22, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Dolphins (-520) @ Jets (+390)
- Spread: Dolphins -10 (-108) @ Jets +10 (-112)
- Over/Under: Over 41 (-112) / Under 41 (-108)
Take a look at the best Dolphins odds and Jets odds for the 2023 NFL season.
Dolphins vs Jets Prediction
Dolphins 24, Jets 17
If Zach Wilson were still starting for the Jets, this game would be entirely too predictable. However, there’s more uncertainty with New York turning to Tim Boyle.
The Jets offense has been one of the worst units in the NFL this season. New York averages 15 points per game (30th in the league) and has converted just 22.9% of its third-down attempts this season.
No NFL team has been that ineffective on third down since that statistic started being recorded in 1991. That’s unfathomably bad.
Still, we’ve seen in the past that New York’s offense finds new life without Wilson under center. Last year, the Jets had more success with Joe Flacco, Josh Johnson, and (current Dolphins backup) Mike White running the show.
Will the same ring true for Boyle and under-fire OC Nathaniel Hackett? Time will tell. But I think we’ll get New York’s best effort here after a clunker last weekend in Buffalo.
Dolphins vs Jets Best Bet
Jets +10 (-112)
While it’ll be interesting to see what New York’s new-look offense can do, this cover will ultimately come down to the Jets’ defense against the Dolphins’ offense.
Miami averages a league-best 30.5 points per game, but that number is still inflated from its 70-point outing earlier this season against Denver. The Dolphins have been held to 20 points or fewer in three of their last four games.
New York’s defense is coming off its worst outing of the season, but the unit has had success slowing down high-powered offenses like the Eagles (14 points), Chiefs (23 points), and Bills (16 points) on its home turf.
The corner tandem of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed is one of the few in the league that can hang with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. And although Miami will find success on the ground, that will shorten the game and keep it close.
Dolphins vs Jets Parlay
Best Dolphins vs Jets Parlay (+305)
- Tim Boyle: Over 0.5 Pass TDs (-130)
- Tim Boyle: Over 17.5 Completions (+105)
- Tim Boyle: Over 175 Pass Yds (+135)
The Jets’ offense has been an unmitigated disaster. The offensive line is in shambles. And Miami’s defense is playing its best football with corner Jalen Ramsey back in the lineup.
But the bar is unbelievably low.
Getting better than 3-1 odds on what should be the minimum expectations for an NFL quarterback is worth the risk, even with this offense.
Dolphins vs Jets Prop Bet
Raheem Mostert: Over 58.5 Rush Yds (-110)
This number is way too low.
New York’s biggest weakness on defense is against the run. The Jets allow 137.6 yards per game on the ground and have allowed their opponent’s leading rusher to go well Over this total each of the last two weeks.
With backfield mate De’Von Achane’s status up in the air for Friday after re-injuring his knee, Mostert should have a clear runway to a big day.