NFL Divisional Round Prop Bets

John Arlia
Last Updated: Jan 19, 2024

My NFL Wild Card props finished with a 4-2 record, generating a positive start for the column in the postseason.

With the NFL Divisional Round consisting of just four games, there are fewer opportunities to find value this weekend. However, we’ll make do with the cards we’re dealt.

Let’s dig into my favorite NFL prop bets for the Divisional Round.

All NFL betting odds used for these Divisional Round props are current as of Friday, Jan. 19, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Divisional Round Player Props

Rachaad White: Under 54.5 Rush Yds (-135)

The Detroit Lions’ defensive strength will match up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offensive weakness on Sunday, meaning it could likely be a long day for Rachaad White.

Detroit’s defense allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game during the regular season (88.8), while the Bucs averaged the fewest rushing yards per game (88.8) on offense.

White had just seven carries for 26 yards in Tampa Bay’s Week 6 loss to the Lions, and he went Over this number in just two of the team’s eight defeats on the season.

In a bad matchup and what should be a negative game script, backing White to go Under 54.5 rushing yards makes a lot of sense, even at these juiced odds.

Jayden Reed: Over 40.5 Rec Yds (-120)

Reed was blanked in his postseason debut against the Dallas Cowboys last week, failing to haul in a catch on three targets — his fewest opportunities since Week 9.

However, the rookie, who led the Green Bay Packers in receiving yards during the regular season (793), should be in for a bounce-back performance against the San Francisco 49ers.

As nearly 10-point underdogs, Green Bay should be in a negative game script, giving the passing attack more chances to succeed.

I also would be surprised if San Francisco allowed as many chunk plays as Dallas did, which again will increase Reed’s opportunities.

The Michigan State product went Over this total nine times during the regular season, including in each of the final three games. After last week’s dud, take the value on this low number to go Over.

Stefon Diggs: Under 62.5 Rec Yds (-115)

After watching the Bills’ offense under OC Joe Brady for eight weeks, it feels pretty safe to fade Diggs.

A more run-heavy approach has resulted in fewer opportunities for Buffalo’s No. 1 wideout, leading to significantly decreased production.

Diggs has gone Under this number in five of his last six games, including last week’s 52-yard effort on seven catches (nine targets), and six of eight with Brady calling the shots.

The veteran wideout will face a tough matchup this week against Chiefs corner L’Jarius Sneed, and Kansas City allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards per game in the NFL during the regular season (176.5).

In an outdoor game with a low total (45.5) that will see temperatures in the 20s and 10-20 mph winds, fading Diggs feels like a wise investment.

NFL Divisional Round Prop Bets

Texans vs Ravens: BAL 1H -6.5 (-122)

The Baltimore Ravens were one of the best first-half teams during the regular season, posting a remarkable 14-3 against the spread record in the first 30 minutes of games.

Lamar Jackson and Co. averaged the fourth-most first-half points per game in the NFL (15.4) and were even better at M&T Bank Stadium (16.6 1H PPG).

Houston hasn’t had the same success in the opening 30 minutes, especially on the road where it averaged just 8.3 1H points per game.

C.J. Stroud certainly can lead his team to a late score or two if this game gets out of hand early, so I prefer backing the first-half spread over the full-game spread (-9.5). As we saw last in the Wild Card Round, the final score doesn’t always tell the story of a game.

Packers vs 49ers: Both Teams Score 1+ TD in Each Half (+115)

In Saturday’s other contest, I like the Packers and 49ers to trade touchdowns in each half.

This game has the highest total of the Divisional Round at 50.5 points, implying a final score in the realm of 31-20.

Green Bay knows it’s going to need to score to keep up with San Francisco, especially since its defense is the weaker of the two units. With that in mind, we could at some point see HC Matt LaFleur pass up a potential field-goal attempt to try to find the end zone.

And while San Francisco’s defense is among the best in the league, Jordan Love has played at a high level over the second half of the season and was flawless in his postseason debut last week.

The Packers have scored 30-plus points in three of their last four games and should contribute to the high-scoring atmosphere, making this a good bet at plus-money odds.

Lions vs Buccaneers: DET Under 27.5 Points (-105)

The Lions averaged 26.9 points per game during the regular season, including 29.8 per game at home, but this number feels too high.

The Buccaneers have quietly been one of the league’s better defenses, allowing 19.1 points per game during the regular season. Todd Bowles’ squad has held opponents Under 28 points in 10 straight games and allowed 28-plus points just once this year (Week 9 at the Texans).

Tampa Bay also had the third-best red-zone defense during the regular season, allowing a touchdown on just 42.9% of drives inside the 20.

While the Lions have been great at home this season, they are likely to win this game, expecting 28-plus points on Sunday feels like a stretch.


John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

Related articles