NFL Prop Bets Week 6

Jovan Alford
Last Updated: Oct 14, 2023

After going 1-5 on props in Week 4, I went 1-2 on player props and 1-2 on game props for Week 5.

I almost went 2-1 on game props, but the Falcons scored more than 20.5 points against the Texans as kicker Younghoe Koo hit a game-winning field goal.

It wasn’t a perfect outing, but Week 6 offers a clean slate. Let’s check out my best NFL Week 6 props.

All NFL betting odds used for these Week 6 props are current as of Thursday, Oct. 12, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Player Props Week 6

Justin Fields: Over 189.5 Pass Yds (-130)

It’s shocking to see sportsbooks still posting this Justin Fields prop Under 200 yards after his last two performances against the Broncos and Commanders.

The former Ohio State quarterback carved up the Commanders’ defense last week for 282 yards and four touchdowns, and he’s gone Over 188.5 passing yards in four of his past five games.

Fields will aim for another strong outing on Sunday afternoon against the Vikings’ defense, which has allowed 240 passing yards per game (11th-most in the NFL). Minnesota has let four QBs go over 188.5 passing yards, except QB Baker Mayfield, who recorded 173 yards in Week 1.

In two career games against the Vikings, Fields is completing 68.3% of his passes and averaging 246.5 passing yards per game.

Adam Thielen: Over 58.5 Rec Yds (-115)

The veteran wide receiver has become the favorite target for rookie QB Bryce Young and the top option in the Panthers’ passing game.

In last weekend’s blowout loss against the Lions, Thielen had a team-high 11 receptions (13 targets) for 107 yards and a touchdown. The 33-year-old pass catcher has gone Over 58.5 receiving yards in three straight games and has had double-digit targets twice over that span.

Thielen should be able to hit the Over again on Sunday against Miami’s defense, which has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards to WRs and ranked 25th in DVOA-WR1 (30.5%), according to

Blake Grupe: Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+105)

For my last player prop pick, I’ll take another chance on a field goals prop. This time, it will be Saints kicker Blake Grupe.

The 24-year-old placekicker has received a lot of field goal opportunities and done a great job converting them (11-for-12) this season. Grupe is averaging 2.4 field goal attempts per game and has gone Over 1.5 field goals made in four out of five games.

He should get a few opportunities against the Texans on Sunday, who have allowed 1.8 field goal attempts per game (11th in the NFL).

NFL Prop Bets Week 6

Patriots vs Raiders: NE Under 19.5 Points (-115)

After getting shut out by the Saints at home last week, the Patriots need a win and will try to fix their offensive struggles against the Raiders in Las Vegas.

This seems like a solid matchup for New England’s offense on paper, as the Raiders have the 20th-ranked scoring defense (22.8 points per game allowed) and have given up 5.2 opponent yards per game (16th in the NFL).

However, the Patriots haven’t scored more than 19 points since Week 1 against the Eagles (20 points).

The Raiders’ defense only gave up 13 points on Monday night against the Packers and 18 points per game at home this season. Mac Jones and the Patriots’ offense could surprise us on Sunday, but I need to see him not turn over the ball for the Pats to have a chance.

Vikings vs Bears: CHI 1Q ML (+110)

The Bears are starting to figure things out on offense over the last two weeks, which is great news for Chicago fans and bad news for the Vikings’ defense.

Chicago scored 10 points in the first quarter last week against Washington. The Bears have won two first quarters this season, while the Vikings are 0-5 in the frame.

Minnesota has scored 0.6 first-quarter points per game (tied for 31st in the NFL with the Giants). They will also be without stud wide receiver Justin Jefferson.

Chicago’s’ defense has allowed 4.8 first-quarter points per game this season, but not having Jefferson will be a significant loss for the Vikings.

Seahawks vs Bengals: SEA Over 20.5 Points (-115)

The Seahawks are coming off the bye week on a three-game winning streak, scoring 32.6 points per game. In those three games, Seattle has gone Over 20.5 points every time.

They will try to extend their win streak to four games against the Bengals, who got back into the win column with a 34-20 win last week against Arizona. Cincinnati’s defensive line could make it hard against Geno Smith in the pocket, who has been sacked twice in three out of four games this season.

However, the Bengals have allowed more than 20.5 points in three out of five games this season and have struggled to stop the run (154 yards per game).


Jovan Alford

Jovan Alford is currently a freelance writer at The Game Day. Before TGD, Jovan was a content producer at The Sporting News, focusing on betting and fantasy sports. He also worked at DraftKings Nation and was previously a sports editor at the Philadelphia Metro. Jovan loves betting on player props and playing daily fantasy sports.

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