The Minnesota Vikings were one of the NFL’s surprise teams last season, finishing 13-4 and winning the NFC North by a wide margin.
However, the team’s advanced metrics told a slightly different story. Minnesota greatly overachieved thanks to a superb record in one-possession games, which helped cover up some of its fatal flaws (especially on defense).
Unfortunately for Vikings fans, those flaws were exposed in a home wild-card round loss to the Giants. While head coach Kevin O’Connell’s first year should be considered a success, his team has some work to do to improve in 2023.
As we get closer to the start of training camp, let’s look at the latest Vikings betting odds for the upcoming campaign.
Vikings Futures Betting Odds
Note: These NFL odds are current as of Tuesday, June 27, and provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Win Super Bowl: +3500
- Win NFC Championship: +1500
- Win NFC North: +250
- Make Playoffs: Yes (+100) / No (-120)
- Regular-Season Win Total: Over 8.5 (-130) / Under 8.5 (+110)
Vikings Super Bowl 58 Odds
Vikings: Win Super Bowl (+3500)
Minnesota sits in the middle tier of the latest Super Bowl 58 odds, which seems fair after its performance last season.
On offense, the Vikings want to get the ball to Justin Jefferson as often as possible. The All-Pro wideout caught 128 passes for over 1,800 yards and eight scores last season, establishing himself as one of the league’s top targets.
Beyond Jefferson, Kirk Cousins’ weapons will look different this season. Dalvin Cook was a cap casualty, leaving the running game in the hands of Alexander Mattison. Trusted target Adam Thielen is in Carolina, opening up opportunities for T.J. Hockenson, K.J. Osborn, and 2023 first-rounder Jordan Addison.
While this unit should produce plenty of points in the regular season, can Cousins lead his team to a Super Bowl? His playoff record (1-4) leaves much to be desired.
And after finishing 27th in DVOA on defense last season, we know he won’t have much help on the other side of the ball.
While another playoff appearance seems plausible, a Super Bowl victory feels like a stretch.
Vikings NFC Championship Odds
Vikings: Win NFC Championship (+1500)
The Vikings currently have the seventh-best odds of winning the NFC Championship in 2023.
Minnesota has reached the playoffs in three of the last six seasons, making one conference title game appearance during that span. That appearance, a 38-7 loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles, came before Cousins arrived.
While many critics may point the finger at the quarterback, the Vikings’ defense has allowed over 25 points per game each of the last three years.
Unless that unit improves in 2023, Minnesota will have trouble competing against the likes of Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Dallas at the top of the conference.
Vikings NFC North Winner Odds
Vikings: Win NFC North (+250)
If you’re looking for a value bet on the Vikings, this is it.
Minnesota went off at a similar price last year as second-favorites behind Green Bay in the NFC North odds and won the division by four games.
This time around, the Vikings are second-favorites behind the Detroit Lions, who haven’t won a division title since 1993.
As good as Detroit looked to close last season, and as much as I love Dan Campbell, the Lions still have a lot to prove when it comes to meeting expectations.
Vikings Make Playoffs Odds
Vikings: Make Playoffs (+100)
Minnesota’s odds of making the NFL playoffs aren’t as appealing as their division winner odds, but they’re still worth betting.
This team has enough talent on offense to stay in games, regardless of whether their defense improves.
The Vikings are also lucky to play in the NFC, which isn’t nearly as top-heavy as the AFC. Nine wins could be enough to earn a wild-card spot.
Vikings Regular-Season Win Total Odds
Vikings: Over 8.5 Wins (-130)
The Vikings’ regular-season win total is 8.5 games, representing a considerable dropoff from the 13 victories Minnesota recorded a season ago.
And while that is understandable based on the underlying metrics — Minnesota was expected to win 8.4 games last season — I’m still leaning toward the Over.
The team’s schedule features some easy games against the NFC South, and it’s hard to argue that the Vikings aren’t still ahead of Chicago and Green Bay in their division.
A surprise win or two elsewhere should see Minnesota over this total.