TNF Predictions Week 14 | Patriots vs Steelers

John Arlia
Last Updated: 6 minutes ago

Thursday Night Football rarely delivers a game worth watching. However, that wasn’t the case in Week 13 as the Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks played one of the most entertaining contests of the season (though I could’ve lived with fewer penalties).

Anyway, it’s back to reality in Week 14 as the slate kicks off with what looks to be a low-scoring matchup between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Let’s dig into the latest Patriots vs Steelers odds and discuss our best bets for this Thursday Night Football matchup.

Patriots vs Steelers Odds

TNF odds are current as of Wednesday, Dec. 6, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise specified).

  • Moneyline: Patriots (+205) @ Steelers (-250)
  • Spread: Patriots +6 (-110) @ Steelers -6 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 30 (-105) / Under 30 (-115)

Take a look at the best Patriots odds and Steelers odds for the 2023 NFL season.

Thursday Night Football Prediction

Steelers 13, Patriots 7

Points should be at a premium on Thursday night as two of the NFL’s lowest-scoring offenses collide. New England currently ranks last in scoring (12.3 points per game) while Pittsburgh sits 28th (16.0).

The Steelers feel like the team with more untapped offensive potential in this matchup, especially after firing much-maligned OC Matt Canada. Pittsburgh has talented weapons on offense, including upstart RB Jaylen Warren, WR George Pickens, and TE Pat Freiermuth, but quarterback play remains a problem.

Regular starter Kenny Pickett (ankle) will miss this matchup, leaving Mitchell Trubisky to start in his wake.

New England will also feature its backup quarterback in this contest, as Bailey Zappe will get a second straight start ahead of Mac Jones. Zappe completed 13-of-25 passes for 141 yards in last week’s 6-0 loss to the Chargers, the Patriots’ second scoreless outing of the season.

With RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) potentially missing this contest, it’s hard to see Bill O’Brien‘s offense finding a much-needed spark.

That said, both defenses should have plenty of success, and we should see plenty of punts to make up for seeing none on TNF in Week 13.

Thursday Night Football Best Bet

Under 30 (-115)

This total has fallen five points since opening, so we’ve got some great closing line value after hopping on Under 35 last Friday.

If you didn’t catch that number, I’d still play the Under at 30.

Standalone games have seen the Under hit at a ridiculous rate this season, and these two teams should keep that trend going.

Ten of Pittsburgh’s 12 games have gone Under this season (83.3%) — the highest mark in the NFL. New England’s games aren’t far behind, falling Under the projected total in nine of 12 (75%).

Given the quarterbacks playing in this game, the Over only has a chance to hit if these defenses wreak havoc and force turnovers in plus-territory.

Thursday Night Football Parlay

Best TNF Parlay (+288) at DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Under 24.5 (+201)
  • Steelers ML (-250)

Patriots’ games have seen 17 points or fewer in each of the last three weeks. New England’s offense has scored one touchdown and just 13 points over that stretch, and it’s hard to see that improving without Stevenson, one of their best offensive players.

The Steelers will be eager to bounce back after a dismal showing last week against the Cardinals, and they should get the job done in an ugly TNF rock fight.

Thursday Night Football Prop Bet

Race to 20 Points: Neither (+105)

The Patriots have gone five games without hitting the 20-point mark. The Steelers haven’t cleared 20 points in their last three.

The defenses are the top two units in this game, and the clock should move with both teams trying to gain yards via the ground game.

Also, the implied total for this matchup has the Steelers winning 18-12, so getting this prop at plus-money odds feels like a good bet.


John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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