The Houston Texans have embarked on a full-on rebuild.
After a 3-13-1 season, the Texans fired head coach Lovie Smith and replaced him with former linebacker and San Francisco 49ers DC DeMeco Ryans.
To help reset Houston’s roster, GM Nick Caserio was aggressive at the NFL Draft, landing quarterback C.J. Stroud at No. 2 and trading back up to No. 3 to take Alabama EDGE Will Anderson.
But will those moves improve the team’s fortunes in the short term? Let’s look at the Texans’ betting odds for the 2023 NFL season.
Texans Futures Betting Odds
Note: These NFL betting odds are current as of Wednesday, July 12, and provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Win Super Bowl: +20000
- Win AFC Championship: +10000
- Win AFC South: +800
- Make Playoffs: Yes (+475) / No (-700)
- Regular-Season Win Total: Over 6.5 (+110) / Under 6.5 (-130)
Texans Super Bowl 58 Odds
Texans: Win Super Bowl (+20000)
After posting the second-worst record in the NFL last season, it’s no surprise that the Texans have the joint-longest odds of winning Super Bowl 58.
Houston’s offense struggled mightily under Davis Mills, who will likely mentor Stroud from the sidelines this season.
The rookie out of Ohio State doesn’t have a ton of top talent to work worth, especially after Houston dealt wideout Brandin Cooks to Dallas. However, running back Dameon Pierce was a bright spot in his rookie season, and former Cowboy Dalton Schultz offers a reliable presence at tight end.
On defense, the Texans have surrounded recent first-rounders Derek Stingley Jr. and Anderson with a cast of veterans on one-year deals.
Experienced players like Sheldon Rankins, Shaq Griffin, and Hassan Ridgeway should help this unit, but it will take some time for Ryans to turn Houston into one of the top defensive teams in the league.
This should be a development year for the Texans.
Texans AFC Championship Odds
Texans: Win AFC Championship (+10000)
The Texans sit at the bottom of the preseason AFC Championship betting odds, which makes plenty of sense for a team essentially starting over from scratch.
Houston hasn’t reached the AFC title game in its 21-year history, even when Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt were at the peak of their powers.
While I like the direction Houston has taken this offseason, there is a lot of work still to be done for the Texans to turn things around and become AFC contenders again.
Texans AFC South Winner Odds
Texans: Win AFC South (+800)
Houston has +800 odds of winning the AFC South, implying an 11% chance of topping the division this season.
While the South is expected to be one of the worst divisions in football, that price still seems too high.
The Jaguars and Titans are more talented and experienced teams, and the rebuilding Colts have a slightly higher ceiling.
The Texans could be an intriguing bet to finish third (+200), ahead of Indianapolis, but they’re projected fourth for a reason.
Texans Make Playoffs Odds
Texans: Miss Playoffs (-700)
This is the safest bet you can make on the Texans this season, who have missed the postseason the last three years and won just 11 games during that span.
The problem is that you have to outlay $7 for every $1 of potential profit.
The juice isn’t worth the squeeze.
Texans Regular-Season Win Total Odds
Texans: Under 6.5 Wins (-130)
The Texans’ regular-season win total is 6.5, which seems way too high for a team that has won four or fewer games each of the last three years.
While there is optimism that Ryans can come in and turn things around, he’s working with a roster well below what he had in San Francisco.
The only reason Houston has a shot at getting to seven wins is a soft schedule, which features games against the equally bad NFC South.
Still, the Texans are currently only favored in three games this season at DraftKings Sportsbook, so they’ll need to pull off a few upsets to reach seven wins.
While five or six victories are feasible, I don’t see seven or more as a likely outcome.