Patriots Odds 2023

John Arlia
Last Updated: Jun 29, 2023

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the New England Patriots have had some trouble adjusting to life without Tom Brady. However, pinning the blame entirely on Mac Jones doesn’t tell the whole story.

After longtime offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels left for Las Vegas, Bill Belichick made a massive mistake leaving the offense in the hands of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, two coaches that haven’t worked on that side of the ball for most of their careers.

That experiment failed as New England finished 24th in DVOA on offense, forcing Belichick to bring back former OC Bill O’Brien for the coming season. Will that be enough to help the Patriots turn things around?

Let’s look at the latest Patriots betting odds for 2023.

Patriots Futures Betting Odds

Note: NFL betting odds used for these predictions are current as of Thursday, June 29, and provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Win Super Bowl: +6500
  • Win AFC Championship: +3500
  • Win AFC East: +800
  • Make Playoffs: Yes (+250) / No (-300)
  • Regular-Season Win Total: Over 7.5 (+100) / Under 7.5 (-120)

Patriots Super Bowl 58 Odds

Patriots: Win Super Bowl (+6500)

It’s still a bit staggering to see the Patriots this far down in the Super Bowl odds, especially since we’re only a few years removed from New England being a perennial threat in the AFC.

But in the 50 regular-season games since Brady left for Tampa Bay, the franchise has a record of 25-25.

Some might say that Belichick has done well to keep the team afloat without the future first-ballot Hall of Famer, while others will argue that two losing seasons in three years is an abject failure.

Regardless, all dynasties must come to an end at some point.

While New England’s offense should take a step forward with O’Brien back in the fold, there isn’t enough talent on this roster to compete with the league’s best.

Patriots AFC Championship Odds

Patriots: Win AFC Championship (+3500)

The Patriots currently have the fifth-worst odds to win the AFC this season, only surpassing the Raiders (+4000), Titans (+5500), Colts (+7000), and Texans (+10000).

I think New England is clear of that group and could reasonably be lumped in with the Broncos and Steelers (both +2500), but the point remains that this bunch is far from the contender it has been over the last two decades.

While O’Brien should help streamline the offense, there still isn’t a lot of talent to work with. Jones’ top options in the passing game are JuJu Smith-Schuster and Devante Parker, whose best days are likely behind them.

Running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been a good find, but this offense isn’t explosive enough to keep pace in the modern NFL.

Patriots AFC East Winner Odds

Patriots: Win AFC East (+800)

Typically, Belichick’s defense can keep New England competitive in the division, but that may not be the case this season.

For the first time in a long time, the Patriots occupy the basement of the preseason AFC East odds.

The Bills have won three straight division titles and have one of the best quarterbacks in football in Josh Allen. The Dolphins added Jalen Ramsey to an improving defense, which doesn’t have to do that much given the offensive trio of Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle. The Jets had one of the best defenses in the league last season and brought in Aaron Rodgers to solve their QB issues.

The AFC East may be up for grabs this season, but the Patriots have very little chance of overcoming those three teams to take the title.

Patriots Make Playoffs Odds

Patriots: Miss Playoffs (-300)

I wouldn’t recommend betting on the Patriots’ odds of making the NFL playoffs, but I can see the appeal if you trust Belichick and want a 2.5x return on your investment.

Unfortunately, betting New England to miss the postseason doesn’t offer much value, either.

Patriots Regular-Season Win Total Odds

Patriots: Under 7.5 Wins (-120)

The Patriots’ win total is 7.5 games, which feels a bit like a trap. New England has only gone under this total once since 2001, finishing 7-9 in 2020 when most of its roster sat out because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Still, where are the wins coming from?

At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Patriots are favored in just three games this season. Their schedule is one of the toughest in football and features games against the NFC East and AFC West, in addition to six brutal matchups within the division.

Belichick usually works his magic, so this doesn’t feel super safe, but the Under is the play.


John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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