Chiefs vs Ravens Predictions & Picks

Doug Bonjour
Last Updated: Jan 24, 2024

A trip to Super Bowl LVIII will be on the line Sunday (3:30 p.m. ET) when the Baltimore Ravens host the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

Baltimore, the AFC’s No. 1 seed, beat the Houston Texans 34-10 in the divisional round. Meanwhile, Kansas City edged the Buffalo Bills 27-24.

What should bettors expect? Let’s break down the latest odds and give our Kansas City vs Baltimore best bets.

Chiefs vs Ravens Odds

NFL betting odds are current as of Tuesday, Jan. 23, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: Chiefs (+145) vs Ravens (-175)
  • Spread: Chiefs +3.5 (-118) vs Ravens -3.5 (-102)
  • Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-110) / Under 44.5 (-110)

Chiefs vs Ravens Matchup

The Ravens rolled to the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and they don’t appear to be slowing down.

Thanks to MVP favorite Lamar Jackson, they’re on the cusp of returning to the Super Bowl for the first time since the end of the 2012 season.

Jackson was sensational against Houston, throwing for 152 yards and two touchdowns in addition to rushing for 100 yards and a pair of scores.

The Ravens have now won seven of their last eight games, with the only loss during that stretch coming in Week 18 with several key starters resting.

To get where they want, the Ravens must first overcome the defending Super Bowl champions.

The Chiefs are in their sixth straight AFC title game, although this time they’re taking a slightly different path. Patrick Mahomes had never played an away game in the playoffs until last week when Kansas City edged Buffalo.

The Chiefs may have looked vulnerable at times during the regular season, but few are better at getting it done in January than Mahomes and Andy Reid.

Chiefs vs Ravens Prediction

Ravens 24, Chiefs 21

Baltimore is arguably the NFL’s most balanced team, powered by Jackson and the No. 1 scoring defense.

The Ravens had five double-digit victories over playoff teams during the regular season. On top of that, they led the league with a plus-203 point differential.

Jackson may still have some doubters. Prior to Saturday, he’d been just 1-3 in the playoffs with an unsightly 68.3 QB rating. But the two-time All-Pro quieted a lot of them with his record-setting performance.

In Mahomes, Kansas City has one of the few quarterbacks who can match Jackson in terms of talent. Mahomes is now 13-3 in the postseason and has thrown 38 touchdowns compared to only seven interceptions.

The Chiefs’ defense has been stingy, but Baltimore feels destined to make the Super Bowl this season.

Jackson and the Ravens will do enough in front of their fans to end Kansas City’s reign.

Chiefs vs Ravens Best Bet

Chiefs +3.5 (-112)

Mahomes hasn’t been an underdog often in his career, and yet he’s thrived in that role, going 9-1-1 ATS and 8-3 SU.

Meanwhile, Baltimore is 6-0 ATS when favored by four points or fewer this season. The Ravens’ 12 wins ATS – a 66.7% cover rate – are tied for second-most in the NFL.

They’ve been a bit more difficult to peg at home, however, covering in just three of their last six games at M&T Bank Stadium.

Although the Ravens should do enough to outlast Kansas City, I’m leery of them covering the hook.

Why? Mahomes, of course. And, well, Mahomes. The two-time MVP is 11-5 ATS in the postseason. Betting against him is a risky proposition, even with Jackson on the other side.

Chiefs vs Ravens Parlay

Best Chiefs vs Ravens Parlay (+210)

  • Ravens -1.5 (-169)
  • Under 46 (-135)
  • Ravens 1H ML (-170)

Kansas City’s defense has been stingy, but its performance versus Buffalo against the run raised some concerns.

The Bills averaged 4.7 yards per carry and ran for 182 yards, with Josh Allen (11 carries, 70 yards, 2 TDs) accounting for more than a third of that production. That could prove problematic against the Ravens’ No. 1-ranked rushing attack.

At this point, the spread is small enough that there are decent odds when hedging Baltimore down to -1.5.

Along those same lines, I’m boosting the total to 46. The Chiefs have gone Under the total in four of their last five games and are just 6-13 against the Over/Under this season. With rain potentially in the forecast for Sunday in Baltimore, I’m banking on that trend continuing.

Chiefs vs Ravens Prop Bet

Lamar Jackson: Anytime TD (+105)

After rushing for two scores against Houston, Jackson will look to exploit Kansas City’s defense the same way Allen did.

With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, I’m betting on him finding the end zone at least once with his legs.


Doug Bonjour

Doug covered college and prep sports in Connecticut for more than a decade, including stints as the UConn women’s basketball and UConn football beat reporter for Hearst Connecticut Media. During his time reporting on the 11-time national champion Huskies, he covered three NCAA Final Fours. He also has written for the Associated Press and New York Times.

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