We finally got conference games in Week 4 of the college football season.
Among them, Florida State beat Clemson in overtime, and Alabama secured a comfortable win over Ole Miss.
Our predictions claimed a clean sweep: Liberty covered as a 10-point favorite against FIU, BYU and Kansas cleared the Over, and Washington State won outright as a three-point home underdog versus Oregon State.
Here are our CFB best bets for Week 5.
Skyler Carlin’s 2023 CFB Best Bets Record: 9-5
College Football Week 5 Predictions
All NCAAF betting odds used for these CFB Week 5 predictions are current as of Monday, Sept. 25, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Georgia vs Auburn Prediction: Georgia -14.5 (-105)
This isn’t the same Georgia team from a year ago with quarterback Stetson Bennett now in the NFL, but the Bulldogs are seemingly finding their groove on offense with new starter Carson Beck. Beck put together his best start this season in last week’s 49-21 win over UAB, completing 22 of his 32 attempts for 338 yards. He also contributed four touchdowns, with three passing and one rushing.
Auburn beat inferior opponents in UMass, California, and Samford before losing 27-10 at Texas A&M in Week 4.
- Stay up to date with the latest CFP National Championship odds.
Both Georgia and Auburn are 1-3 ATS this season, but the Bulldogs finally utilized star tight end Brock Bowers more in the passing game en route to nine receptions, 121 yards, and two scores against UAB.
Georgia’s defense still possesses NFL talent, and Kirby Smart‘s team needs to secure a statement win against a conference opponent. The Bulldogs have won by at least 24 points in each of the last two meetings against the Tigers, which is why they can easily cover by 15-plus points in Week 5.
San Diego State vs Air Force Prediction: Air Force -10.5 (-110)
When San Diego State travels to face Air Force on Saturday, it will do so with a run defense that has struggled to begin the season. That is bad news against an Air Force team that wants to do nothing but run the ball.
Entering Week 5, the Aztecs are giving up 163.8 rushing yards per game, while the Falcons are producing 340.5 rushing yards per game (most in the nation). After winning its first two games of the season, San Diego State has lost three consecutive contests by an average of 15 points.
As for Air Force, the Falcons have covered the spread in double-digit wins over San Jose State and Utah State in the last two weeks. Given the style of Air Force’s run-heavy offense, the Falcons can cruise to at least an 11-point win at home on Saturday.
Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction: Alabama -14.5 (-110)
Alabama hasn’t looked like a typical Nick Saban squad so far, and the Crimson Tide needed their defense to step up in a 24-10 win against Ole Miss last week. Quarterback Jalen Milroe returned to the starting offense versus Ole Miss, completing 17-of-21 passes for 225 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
The good news for Alabama is that it will face a Mississippi State defense that has allowed 37 points or more in back-to-back games against LSU and South Carolina. Additionally, the Crimson Tide have had the Bulldogs’ number for quite some time when these SEC programs have met.
- Check out our Heisman Trophy odds & best bets.
Alabama has won 15 straight meetings, and the last time Mississippi State kept the game within 15 points was back in 2017. In the five meetings since, the Tide have outscored the Bulldogs 182-22.
While Saban’s team hasn’t been its usual dominant self this season, this is a perfect get-right spot offensively against a Mississippi State team that has failed to cover the spread in three straight games.
College Football Week 5 Schedule & Scores: AP Top 25
Friday, Sept. 29, 2023
(10) Utah @ (19) Oregon State, 9 p.m. ET
Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023
(6) Penn State @ Northwestern, 12 p.m. ET
(8) USC @ Colorado, 12 p.m. ET
(22) Florida @ Kentucky, 12 p.m. ET
(1) Georgia @ Auburn, 3:30 p.m. ET
(2) Michigan @ Nebraska, 3:30 p.m. ET
(24) Kansas @ (3) Texas, 3:30 p.m. ET
(23) Missouri @ Vanderbilt, 4 p.m. ET
(13) LSU @ (20) Ole Miss, 6 p.m. ET
(9) Oregon @ Stanford, 6:30 p.m. ET
Iowa State @ (14) Oklahoma, 7 p.m. ET
(11) Notre Dame @ (17) Duke, 7:30 p.m. ET
South Carolina @ (21) Tennessee, 7:30 p.m. ET
(12) Alabama @ Mississippi State, 9 p.m. ET
(7) Washington @ Arizona, 10 p.m. ET
Nevada @ (25) Fresno State, 10:30 p.m. ET