Week 11 could play a pivotal role in determining the College Football Playoff picture, with No. 1 Georgia hosting No. 10 Ole Miss and No. 2 Michigan visiting No. 9 Penn State.
With a huge slate of games on deck, I’ll try to continue my recent stretch of success after sweeping my best bets in Week 10.
Without further ado, here are my best college football bets for Week 11 of the 2023 campaign.
Skyler Carlin’s 2023 CFB Best Bets Record: 19-13
College Football Week 11 Predictions
All NCAAF betting odds used for these CFB Week 11 predictions are current as of Tuesday, Nov. 7, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Old Dominion vs Liberty Prediction: Liberty -13.5 (-110)
Why avoid something that has worked for us all season? We’ve backed Liberty every week it has played on Saturday, and it has panned out each time.
The Flames are 9-0 this season, and quarterback Kaidon Salter has been efficient with 23 passing touchdowns and only three interceptions.
With Salter orchestrating the offense, Liberty is producing 39.1 points per game (tied for 12th in the nation). The Flames are hosting Old Dominion, a team scoring only 24.4 points per game.
- Stay up to date with the latest CFP National Championship odds.
Besides being undefeated, Liberty is 7-2 against the spread this season. While Old Dominion is 6-3 ATS, it is 1-3 on the road and is on a two-game losing streak.
Given how the Flames have looked on both sides of the ball (they are giving up 21.2 points per game), they are poised for an easy win over the 4-5 Monarchs this weekend.
Florida vs LSU Prediction: Over 63.5 (-110)
Whenever LSU lines up, the Over is always going to be in play. The Tigers are a perfect 9-0 to the Over this season after losing 42-28 to Alabama in Week 10.
On the defensive side of the ball, LSU is surrendering 28.2 points per game. In their last four games against non-Auburn SEC teams, the Tigers have allowed 41.8 points per game.
While Florida doesn’t have an imposing offense (28.9 points per game), it has scored 36-plus points in three of its last four contests, and the lone time it had fewer was a 20-point outing against Georgia.
The Tigers also boast an offense, led by Jayden Daniels, that is posting 45.2 points per game (third-most in the nation) despite scoring only 28 points in Week 10.
With the Gators hitting the Over in five consecutive games, 64-plus points is
certainly within the realm of possibility in a showdown against the Tigers.
Oklahoma State vs UCF Prediction: Oklahoma State -2.5 (-110)
Some would argue that Oklahoma State is in a prime letdown spot following an upset win over Oklahoma at home in Week 10.
I would argue that the Cowboys have been rolling, and that the market hasn’t caught up. Oklahoma State is on a five-game winning streak, with each of those victories coming against Big 12 opposition, and has covered the spread in every game during this run.
- Check out our Heisman Trophy odds & best bets.
On Saturday, the Cowboys will face UCF, who just snapped a five-game losing streak against a Cincinnati squad that is 2-7 on the season.
The Knights allow 29.4 points per game, and the Cowboys have scored at least 39 points in three of their last five contests.
Oklahoma State is a solid team that is tied for 24th in turnover margin at +5, while UCF is -5 in the same category.
The Cowboys are 6-3 ATS this season (they have gone 2-1 ATS on the road), and the Knights are 3-6 ATS (they have gone 0-2 ATS in their last two home games).
College Football Week 11 Schedule & Scores: AP Top 25
Thursday, Nov. 9, 2023
Virginia @ (11) Louisville, 7:30 p.m. ET
Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023
(2) Michigan @ (9) Penn State, 12 p.m. ET
(8) Alabama @ Kentucky, 12 p.m. ET
Texas Tech @ (19) Kansas, 12 p.m. ET
Tulsa @ (20) Tulane, 12 p.m. ET
Old Dominion @ (25) Liberty, 1 p.m. ET
(23) Arizona @ Colorado, 2 p.m. ET
Connecticut @ (21) James Madison, 2 p.m. ET
Miami @ (4) Florida State, 3:30 p.m. ET
(13) Utah @ (5) Washington, 3:30 p.m. ET
(14) Tennessee @ (16) Missouri, 3:30 p.m. ET
(15) Oklahoma State @ UCF, 3:30 p.m. ET
Stanford @ (12) Oregon State, 5:30 p.m. ET
(10) Ole Miss @ (1) Georgia, 7 p.m. ET
West Virginia @ (17) Oklahoma, 7 p.m. ET
Michigan State @ (3) Ohio State, 7:30 p.m. ET
(7) Texas @ TCU, 7:30 p.m. ET
Florida @ (18) LSU, 7:30 p.m. ET
Duke @ (24) UNC, 8 p.m. ET
USC @ (6) Oregon, 10:30 p.m. ET