Many NFL observers view the Kansas City Chiefs as a blossoming NFL dynasty. That sort of widespread collective outlook makes a lot of sense, as the Chiefs have appeared in three of the last four Super Bowls and hosted an NFL-record five consecutive AFC Championship Games.
Much as the New England Patriots used to, Kansas City also dominates its division. The Chiefs are gunning for an eighth consecutive AFC West title, which would put them second behind the Patriots’ run of 11. Winning the division regularly can be an obvious springboard to a potentially successful playoff run.
But even for the Chiefs, who look quite sturdy in several areas on the 2023 depth chart, repeating as a Super Bowl champion is no easy feat. While Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, Travis Kelce, and other key figures can spur the team to go deep into the postseason again, winning it all in a second consecutive season is no surefire bet.
Kansas City has the best odds to win Super Bowl 58 on DraftKings at +600, but there is much working against it in its quest to win a fourth Lombardi Trophy. Chiefs’ fans may want to blow off these factors, but they are strong ones that lay in the path of another championship.
10 Reasons Why Chiefs Won’t Win Super Bowl 58
- Even The Best Can’t Overcome History: No team has repeated as Super Bowl champs in nearly 20 years since the Patriots last turned the trick in 2004 and 2005. New England lost in the playoffs the following season after each of its subsequent three Super Bowl wins, with conference championship and Super Bowl defeats after the first two of those, demonstrating how difficult it is to finish the job in consecutive seasons.
- Contention Frequently Leads To Just Coming Up Short: In the last five seasons, the Chiefs have played in five conference championship games and three Super Bowls. They are going to be a top contender again this season. Still, when you consider that they have two Super Bowl wins when making five deep playoff runs, we have another signal that completing the championship feat is daunting for even the best team in the NFL over the past half-decade.
- Look Ahead, Not Behind: Many fans base their expectations off what we saw last season, and even some prognosticators do the same. But every year brings us new storylines and breakout teams that can challenge for a championship. Much still must go right for any team to win a Super Bowl, and staying healthy can be a significant part of the tale, as we saw when Kansas City lost to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl 55.
- AFC Teams In The Way: Sure, the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills have yet to complete their championship journeys, but both teams are hungry to do so during their possible title windows. The Bengals already beat the Chiefs in the AFC Championship two seasons ago, and the Bills have won two regular-season meetings and lost in an overtime playoff game in the last three matchups, so Buffalo will be primed to try and finish Kansas City off this time. Teams that currently seem less formidable than the Chiefs, such as the Jacksonville Jaguars, Baltimore Ravens, or Miami Dolphins, could also emerge as more significant threats in the AFC playoffs.
- The Top Mahomes Nemesis May Become Apparent: The greatest QBs have often developed great rivalries with other elite players at the position. Tom Brady had Peyton Manning as a top rival, Troy Aikman had Steve Young, and Terry Bradshaw had Ken Stabler and Roger Staubach to contend with. This could be the season when Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, or Jalen Hurts might get their chance to interrupt Mahomes’ era of glory and become his prime adversary.
- Mahomes Can’t Do It All: As great as Mahomes has been, no QB can single-handedly carry an NFL team to a title in a team sport. The Chiefs’ offense has been the crux of the outstanding recent success, but the wide receiver and running back groups are thin on proven and dependable performers, maybe more so than in past seasons.
- The Defense Won’t Dominate: If the Kansas City offense slips at all, don’t expect the defense to spur a title push. Steve Spagnuolo is a fine coordinator, and his unit has complemented the offense well enough in the postseason. Still, the Chiefs did not have a top-10 defense in 2022, and they did not rank in the top 15 in passing defense or the top 20 in interceptions. Kansas City lost free safety Juan Thornhill and is counting on some key youngsters in the secondary and on the defensive line.
- The NFC May Rise: The Philadelphia Eagles will attempt an even more difficult feat than the Chiefs, trying to become just the third team to win a Super Bowl after losing in the title game the previous season. Other NFC teams will aim to end lengthy championship droughts, including the San Francisco 49ers, who may have the best roster in the game outside of QB, and the (don’t laugh), Dallas Cowboys, who are not concerned with past failures inside the locker room. One of those three NFC top contenders, or a longer shot such as the Seattle Seahawks, can put it all together for a championship run that may seem less likely in the preseason.
- The Third Super Bowl Win Is Elusive: Before you start putting Mahomes on the road to catch up with Brady, consider that he is the only active quarterback with more than one Super Bowl win. Reid is the only active coach with more than one Super Bowl win. Winning two titles is impressive, but by no means has it guaranteed a third for anyone other than the Patriots since the 1990s Cowboys.
- A Bigger Target On Their Backs: Opposing coaching staffs have likely been more diligent than ever in their determination to expose any perceived flaws that the Chiefs may have. You can bet that all the AFC contenders and divisional opponents spent a ton of time breaking down Kansas City film this offseason. When any weaknesses are revealed, the rest of the league will jump on a game plan to run Kansas City off the championship tracks.